Media Information

Measuring Nuclear Proliferation

On Thursday, April 3, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the United States Institute of Peace co-sponsored a seminar entitled "Measuring Nuclear Proliferation: Nuclear Ladders, Iran, and the NIE" [National Intelligence Estimate], with a group of leading current and former government officials, academics, journalists, and members of the U.S. intelligence community. The "brainstorming" workshop, which focused on the implications of the unclassified November 2007 summary of the U.S. "National Intelligence Estimate: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," was chaired by Leonard Spector, Deputy Director (Washington, DC) of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and Avner Cohen, a USIP Senior Fellow.

Spector said that the main objective of the meeting was to "take stock of the way that the United States assesses the evolution of nuclear programs abroad as they may be moving towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons." Cohen called the meeting "an effort, perhaps the first of its kind, to rethink a variety of themes—theoretical themes, policy themes—that came out of the NIE on Iran."

Central issues discussed included countries' often ambiguous movement on the "nuclear proliferation ladder" and the difficulties encountered by outside observers, including intelligence services, in interpreting such developments.

With the benefit of a presentation by a key U.S. official involved in the document's composition, the meeting also explored the reasoning behind the NIE's controversial finding that in late 2003 Iran had halted, at least temporarily, its "nuclear weapon program"— defined narrowly to mean weaponization activities and clandestine production of fissile material. The session also examined the domestic and international consequences of the release of the unclassified version of the Estimate.

Other sessions included discussions of alternative historical models of nuclear proliferation theory; case studies of nuclear advancement in India, Iraq, Pakistan, and North Korea; foreign views of the "proliferation ladder;" and developing a international consensus or "universal" view on models of nuclear proliferation.


Go to the Press page.
Return to Top