CNS Programs: EANP Seminar
Appendix II: Preliminary List of Trigger Events
The seminar will attempt to identify potentially destabilizing actions
or trends that might "trigger" reactions that escalate toward a
military crisis. We will attempt to understand why actors might take a
particular destabilizing action and discuss likely reactions from the
other two sides. Destabilizing actions could be accidental or deliberate.
The decision to take a potentially destabilizing action is often based
upon miscalculation about how the other side will react. In turn, the
other side’s reaction can sometimes be based on misunderstanding
about why the original actor chose to make the destabilizing action in the
first place.
Below is a long list of potentially destabilizing trigger events that
have been discussed in various media reports. The events are divided into
military, political and economic categories. Our first task as a group
will be to categorize these events in terms of the chances that they will
occur (likely, possible, unlikely) and the potential for reactions to
escalate into a military crisis (dangerous, serious, secondary).
A. Military
- Air/Naval incursions across accepted lines
- US sells or deploys TMD to Taiwan
- Accidents or border violations during intelligence missions
- Accidental missile firing
- Intimidating exercises
- Blockade (or quarantine) practice
- PRC searches ships en route to Taiwan
- Conflict in Spratly Islands
- Submarine incident
- US sails aircraft carrier through strait
- Fishing boat armada assembled
- Taiwan announces development of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons
- Taiwan withdraws troops from Jinmen-Mazu
- PRC missile deployments
- US deploys troops or naval task force to area
- Information warfare attack on military forces
- Hijacking or defection of military planes
- Incidents in which it is not clear that military is operating within authorization
- Sabotage of early warning/radar capability
- Large logistics build-up
- Surge in sealift capability
- Arms transfers that substantially increase military capability
- Establishing formal intelligence links
- PLA invasion plans published (whether true or not)
- PRC tries to build anti-US coalition in Asia
- PRC resumes nuclear testing
- PRC makes nuclear threats against Taiwan or US
- Taiwan Security Enhancement Act passes
- US makes explicit commitment to defend Taiwan
B. Political
- Formal declaration of independence
- Referendum conducted on independence
- Constitution changed
- Other separation (splittist) indicators
- Taiwan admitted to UN or US official support for Taiwan's admission
- Pro-reunification movement causes violence
- Pro-independence movement causes violence
- High-level visits from Taiwan's leaders to US or from US to Taiwan
- Unacceptable Taiwanese conditions for talks
- National symbols (flag/song) changed
- Dissolution of communications channels
- Spy scandals
- Violent incident in PRC involves Taiwan tourists
- Assassination of leaders
- Sudden change in political leadership
- Congressional, National People’s Congress or Legislative Yuan
resolutions
- Individuals speaking out
- Mass rallies/student protests in PRC
- Students/PLA call on President to get tough on Taiwan
- PLA influence on Taiwan policy gets stronger
- Leadership struggle in which Taiwan becomes key issue
- PRC sets deadline for milestone in talks or for reunification
- Violent human rights crackdown in PRC (e.g., Tibet or Hong Kong)
- Ex-president Lee Tenghui invited to address US Congress
- Congressional bills that explicitly discriminate against mainland
China
- Visa prohibitions against visits by other sides’ leaders or
officials
- Hong Kong no longer recognized as separate customs area
- US policy review upgrades Taiwan representation in US
C. Economic
- Political instability due to government gridlock or economic
collapse
- Actions taken against Taiwan investors/businessmen in mainland China
- Riots from unemployment, put down with force
- US seeks to prevent Chinese membership in WTO
- Gross discrimination against US or PRC imports
- PRC’s MFN/NTR status revoked
- Trade sanctions against PLA enterprises
- US urges allies to adopt technology export controls against mainland
China
- Economic sanctions for intellectual property rights or trade
cheating
- PRC bans shipments of goods through Hong Kong
- Consumer boycotts against imported goods
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