U.S. Abstracts:

Arms Control Responses to Missile or TMD Deployments: The Solution

Donald G. Gross

This paper identifies China's use of missiles as the main threat Taiwan faces.  From the United States standpoint, this threat undermines stability and therefore is not in China's interest.  Because of this instability, Taiwan is not only seeking defensive weapons but is also considering acquiring an offensive missile capability.  Reducing this threat would increase economic exchanges between mainland China and Taiwan and would underscore the importance of cross-straits talks.  It would also support moderate political elements in Taiwan, reduce Taiwan's need to acquire more costly defense systems and decrease pressure on the United States to provide defensive weapons.  In this way, the negative action-reaction cycle between the United States and China over the transfer of missile defenses to Taiwan could be transformed into a positive and constructive dynamic.

Donald Gross is the Senior Advisor to the Acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs.

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