Chinese Abstracts

Panel 7: Great Power Relations and the International Arms Control Agenda

Can World Arms Control Walk out of the Rock Bottom?-Roles to Be Played by US, Russia and China

Luo Renshi

The next five years will be marked by the following five trends in arms control and nonproliferation. First, major concessions to push forward the process of international arms control from the United States will not be forthcoming. Second, disarmament agreements will be increasingly difficult to reach due to US efforts to pursue strategic superiority. Third, Russia's lack of strength will inhibit Moscow from achieving its disarmament aspirations. Fourth, China's role in disarmament will continue to be limited. Lastly, despite these difficulties, the US, China and Russia can strive for certain agreements on disarmament. This can be accomplished by implementing the following measures. First, the US should abandon or limit its missile defense program. Second, START III should be reached as a way of giving consideration to the respective requirements of all the parties. Third, effective measures should be taken to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Fourth, negotiations should start on arms in outer space to prevent an arms race. Lastly, criticism should be voiced against the "Cold War mentality" and discussions on the "new security outlook" should begin.

Luo Renshi is a senior fellow at the China Institute of International Strategic Studies.

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