Resources on China

China's Nuclear Stockpile and Deployments

According to a study of China's nuclear forces conducted by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC),

"Our best estimate is that China maintains an arsenal of about 400 warheads of two basic categories, some 250 "strategic" weapons structured in a "triad" of land-based missiles, bombers, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The emphasis of China's arsenal is primarily on the land-based missile leg of the triad. Additionally, China is thought to possess about 150 "tactical" weapons, made up of some or all of the following: low yield bombs for tactical bombardment, artillery shells, atomic demolition munitions, and possibly short range missiles."

China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964, tested its first hydrogen weapon in 1966, began series production of nuclear weapons in 1968 and initiated production of thermonuclear weapons in 1974. Robert Norris of NRDC estimates that China has tested and deployed six nuclear warhead designs:

• a 20-40 kiloton (kT) fission gravity bomb
• a 20 kT missile warhead
• a 3+ meagton (MT) thermonuclear missile warhead
• a 4-5 MT warhead for the DF-5 ICBM
• a 3+ MT thermonuclear gravity bomb;
• a 200-300 kT warhead possibly for the for the JL-1 SLBM and the DF-31 and DF-41

In the Pentagon's November 1997 report entitled, Proliferation: Threat and Response, the US Defense Department stated: China has over 100 nuclear warheads deployed operationally on ballistic missiles while additional warheads are in storage. [Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, November 1997 (online version).]   In addition, a classified CIA study reportedly stated that 13 of China's 18 DF-5A ICBMs are targeted at the United States while the remaining five are targeted at countries closer to China.[China targets nukes at U.S., The Washington Times, 1 May 1998.] Yet, this targeting strategy may have recently changed after the US and China signed a "non-targeting agreement" in June 1998 in which each side promised not to target its missiles at the other.

CHINA'S CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENAL - STOCKPILE, DELIVERY SYSTEMS, AND DEPLOYMENTS

H stands for "Hong" (bomber)
Q stands for "Qian" (fighter/attack aircraft)
B designates bomber aircraft; A designates attack aircraft

[Sources: John W. Lewis and Hua Di, "China's Ballistic Missile Programs: Technologies, Strategies, Goals," International Security, Fall 1992, pp. 9-11; Mirovaya Ekonomika Mezhdunarodnyye Otnosheniya (Moscow), 19 August 1995, pp. 35-46, in "Chinese Nuclear Strategy And National Security," FBIS-UMA-95-206-S, 25 October 1995; Bates Gill, "Determinants And Directions For Chinese Weapons Imports," The Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No. 2 1995, p. 374; "Report: China Upgrading Short-Range Missile Systems," CNN World News, 11 July 1997; Bill Gertz, "New Chinese Missiles Target All of East Asia," Washington Times, 10 July 1997, p. 1]

CHINA'S ESTIMATED NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE: 1964-1998

CHINA'S ESTIMATED TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE

The Chinese government has not, to date, officially confirmed its possession of tactical nuclear weapons.
 
 

YEAR	# TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
1972	0
1975	5
1978	30
1981	75
1984	120
1987	135
1990	150
1993	150

[Sources: Robert S. Norris, Andrew S. Burrows, and Richard W. Fieldhouse, British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume V (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994), p. 359; in Gregory B. Owens, "Chinese Tactical Nuclear Weapons," Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, June 1996, p. 4.]

For more on China's nuclear deployments, see:

• China's Ballistic Missile Designations and Characteristics
• China's Nuclear Weapons Delivery System Modernization

Last Updated March 1999

Copyright 1999, All Rights Reserved
Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Monterey Institute of International Studies
Monterey, CA 93940 USA (831) 647-6509

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