CNS Programs: EANP

China's Nuclear Stockpile and Deployments

China possesses a nuclear arsenal with about 400 warheads of two basic categories. First, China has some 250 "strategic" weapons structured in a "triad" of land-based missiles, bombers, and submarine launched ballistic missiles. China places overwhelming emphasis on the land-based, ballistic missile leg of its triad. Second, China is thought to possess about 150 "tactical" weapons, made up of some or all of the following: low yield bombs for tactical bombardment, artillery shells, atomic demolition munitions, and possibly short range missiles. To date, China has not officially acknowledged its possession of tactical nuclear weapons and China has never discussed the qualitative or quantitative state of its nuclear arsenal. Various sources estimate that China possesses a total of about 425 - 450 nuclear warheads. [Robert S. Norris, "Nuclear Arsenals of the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France and China: A Status Report," presented at the 5th ISODARCO Beijing Seminar on Arms Control, Chengdu, China, November 1996, p. 5.]

China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964, tested its first hydrogen weapon in 1966, began series production of nuclear weapons in 1968 and initiated production of thermonuclear weapons in 1974. Robert Norris of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that China has tested and deployed six nuclear warhead designs:

• a 20-40 kiloton (kT) fission gravity bomb
• a 20 kT missile warhead
• a 3+ megaton (MT) thermonuclear missile warhead
• a 4-5 MT warhead for the DF-5 ICBM
• a 3+ MT thermonuclear gravity bomb;
• a 200-300 kT warhead possibly for the for the JL-1 SLBM and the DF-31 and DF-41

In the Pentagon's November 1997 report entitled, Proliferation: Threat and Response, the US Defense Department stated: China has over 100 nuclear warheads deployed operationally on ballistic missiles while additional warheads are in storage. In addition, a classified CIA study reportedly stated that 13 of China's 18 DF-5A ICBMs are targeted at the United States while the remaining five are targeted at countries closer to China.[China targets nukes at U.S., The Washington Times, 1 May 1998.] Yet, this targeting strategy may have recently changed after the US and China signed a "non-targeting agreement" in June 1998 in which each side promised not to target its missiles at the other.
 
CHINA'S CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENAL - STOCKPILE, DELIVERY SYSTEMS, AND DEPLOYMENTS
 

System Name [US designation in brackets]	Year Deployed	Range and Payload	Nuclear Delivery Capability	Number of Systems and Warheads Deployed	Comments
DF-3/3A  [CSS-2]	1971	2800 km  2150 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 1-5 MT (3.3 MT)	40-80 missiles (one warhead per missile)	120-150 minute launch preparation time; road-mobile; reportedly deployed on 40 refire-capable launchers at six field garrisons and launch complexes
DF-4  [CSS-3]	1980	4750 km  2200 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 1-5 MT (3.3 MT)	10-20 missiles (one warhead per missile)	60-120 minute launch preparation time
DF-5/5A  [CSS-4]	1981	13000+ km  3200 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 1-5 MT (4-5 MT)	4-18 single warhead missile  (estimates vary)	30-60 minute launch preparation time
DF-21/21A  [CSS-5]	1988	1800 km  600 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 200-300 kT	25-50 missiles  (one warhead per missile)	10-15 minute launch preparation time; same missile as the JL-1 SLBM; deployed in areas close to China's borders; replacing DF-3 in some deployment areas on converted DF-3 launchers
DF-15/M-9  [CSS-6  (CSST-600)]		600 km  950 kg (500 kg)	Single nuclear warhead, 50-350 kT		30 minute launch preparation time; nuclear role for CSST-600 is as yet unconfirmed; deployed along China's east coast to target Taiwan
DF-11/M-11  [CSS-7]		280 km  800 kg	Single nuclear warhead,   350 kT		30-45 minute launch preparation time
JL-1 SLBM  [CSS-N-3]	1986	1700 km  600 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 200-300 kT (500 kT)	12 missiles on one Xia-class submarine	Same missile as the DF-21/21A
Hong-6 (H-6) bomber [B-6]	1965	3100 km  4500 kg	One to three nuclear bombs, 10 kT-3 MT per bomb	120 aircraft; China is believed to have a stockpile of 150 nuclear gravity bombs for its aircraft	Redesign of Soviet Tu-26 Badger
Qian-5A (Q-5A) attack aircraft  [A-5A]	1970	400 km  1500 kg	One nuclear bomb, 10 kT-3 MT	30 aircraft; China is believed to have a stockpile of 150 nuclear gravity bombs for its aircraft	Redesign of Soviet MiG-19
Tactical warheads [possibly including artillery shells, rockets, atomic demolition munitions (ADMs)]	mid-1970s		Low kT		150 warheads in storage

"DF" stands for "Dong Feng" ("East Wind")
"JL" stands for "Julang" ("Giant Wave")
"CSS" stands for "Chinese Surface-to-Surface"
"CSS-N" stands for "Chinese Surface-to-Surface Naval"
"CSST" stands for "Chinese Surface-to-Surface Tactical"

H stands for "Hong" (bomber)
Q stands for "Qian" (fighter/attack aircraft)
B designates bomber aircraft; A designates attack aircraft

[Sources: John W. Lewis and Hua Di, "China's Ballistic Missile Programs: Technologies, Strategies, Goals," International Security, Fall 1992, pp. 9-11; Mirovaya Ekonomika Mezhdunarodnyye Otnosheniya (Moscow), 19 August 1995, pp. 35-46, in "Chinese Nuclear Strategy And National Security," FBIS-UMA-95-206-S, 25 October 1995; Bates Gill, "Determinants And Directions For Chinese Weapons Imports," The Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No. 2 1995, p. 374; "Report: China Upgrading Short-Range Missile Systems," CNN World News, 11 July 1997; Bill Gertz, "New Chinese Missiles Target All of East Asia," Washington Times, 10 July 1997, p. 1]

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