Russian Reaction to the Indian Nuclear Tests

Dr. Scott Parrish, CNS Senior Research Associate 
13 May 1998 

The reaction in Russia to the nuclear tests conducted by India on 11 and 13 May 1998 has been overwhelmingly negative. Government officials from Russian President Boris Yeltsin on down have criticized the tests, with the Russian foreign Ministry terming them "unacceptable." Among leading Russian political parties, only the extreme nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, has expressed approval of India’s action. However, the Russian response to the Indian tests seems likely to be limited to diplomatic protests. Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov has virtually ruled out Russian participation in any international sanctions against India. Furthermore, First Deputy Minister of Atomic Energy Viktor Mikhailov has declared his support for moving forward with the proposed sale of nuclear power reactors to India despite the nuclear tests. Early signs thus suggest that Russia will support diplomatic efforts to pressure India to cease testing but will not take any steps that would jeopardize Russian ties with India. 

In a 12 May speech to the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry, President Yeltsin offered only relatively mild criticism of the Indian nuclear tests. Yeltsin said that "of course India has let us down," by conducting the nuclear tests. "I think that by diplomatic means [and] visits we should seek a reversal" of Indian nuclear policy, he added. Yeltsin’s spokesman Sergey Yastrzhembskiy made a somewhat stronger statement later on 12 May, telling a news conference that "we think that India sooner or later--better sooner than later--will have to join the international convention on the comprehensive test ban."  

The Russian Foreign Ministry offered harsher condemnation of the Indian test, but Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov all but ruled out Moscow’s participation in any possible international sanctions targeted against India. In a press statement, the Foreign Ministry said that Russia viewed the Indian nuclear tests "with alarm and concern," adding that "as a close friend of India this action has caused us to feel great regret." The statement condemned the Indian tests as "unacceptable." It assessed the tests as "contradicting the efforts of the international community to strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime on the global and regional level," and charged that the tests "push the world toward the spread of nuclear weapons, [and] create additional significant obstacles in the path of further reductions in nuclear arms." The statement called on India to reverse its nuclear policy and adhere to the Treaty on Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.  

Despite this rhetoric, Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov said in a 12 May interview with the NTV network that Moscow will not "support any sanctions against India." Primakov said that Russia views sanctions "guardedly," and feels they might "lead to counterproductive results." However, he criticized the tests as upsetting the "existing balance of forces in the world," and noted that "an increase in the number of nuclear powers in the world does not correspond to Russian national interests." Primakov added that Russia had lodged a formal protest with the Indian Embassy, and urged Pakistan to refrain from conducting its own nuclear tests.  

The Russian military also reacted negatively to the Indian tests. Colonel-General Vladimir Yakovlev, commander of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, told Interfax on 12 May 1998 that he did not believe that an increase in the number of nuclear powers would contribute to either global or regional stability. He noted pessimistically that the process of nuclear proliferation was difficult to stop, and cited estimates that "by 2005-2010, about 20 countries in the Third World will have the capability to produce nuclear missiles." 

Russian Reactor Sale to Go Forward? 

One question concerning Russia’s reaction to the Indian test is what impact it might have on ongoing negotiations over the sale of two Russian-made VVER-1000 nuclear power reactors to India. The deal, which has not yet been finalized, has been controversial because of India’s refusal to sign the NPT and its operation of unsafeguarded nuclear facilities. The United States has argued that the sale violates the spirit of a 1992 agreement by the Nuclear Suppliers Group not to sell nuclear equipment to countries which have not accepted full-scope safeguards on their nuclear facilities, which India has refused to do. Russia has argued that the sale should be allowed under a "grandfather clause" in that agreement, which exempted sales which were already in progress before 1992. An anonymous official at the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy told Interfax on 12 May that the Indian nuclear tests could lead to the reconsideration of the reactor sale to India. The official said that a decision on whether or not to go ahead with the sale would be made "on the level of the government," and would depend on "how the situation develops." Later, however, First Deputy Minister of Atomic Energy Viktor Mikhailov, a strong proponent of Russian nuclear exports, said that he hoped the sale would go forward despite the tests. "Our contacts with India have very deep roots and the struggle in the world market for construction of nuclear electric stations is stiff, so I hope that the leadership of the country will reserve this market for us," Mikhailov concluded.  

Parliamentary Reaction 

Reaction among Russian parliamentarians was mixed. Vladimir Lukin, a member of the liberal Yabloko faction and Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Duma, told Interfax that "Russia opposes any nuclear tests," and called on the Russian government to "make an appropriate appraisal" of the Indian action. Viktor Ilyukhin, a Communist, and Chairman of the Security Committee of the Duma, also criticized the Indian action, saying that it could "torpedo all agreements on the prohibition of nuclear testing." Ilyukhin suggested that Russia and the UN should issue "specific declarations and warn India." However, he pointedly noted that that he would not support sanctions against India.  

There was support for India’s action only on the fringes of Russian politics. Aleksey Mitrofanov, a member of the extreme nationalist LDPR faction, and chairman of the Geopolitics Committee of the Duma, said that "India, by conducting nuclear tests, acted correctly" in light of the nuclear threat to India posed by Pakistan. Mitrofanov contended that Russia should "draw its own conclusions," and "reconsider its attitude toward a ban on nuclear tests." Mitrofanov said that the LDPR would soon submit a draft resolution to the Duma, calling on the Russian government to resume a limited nuclear test program. 

Conclusion 

While Russian reaction to the Indian nuclear tests has been negative, there is little support for sanctions against India. Given the ongoing trade and cooperation in the military and nuclear spheres strong lobbies in Moscow will resist any policies that might hamper bilateral ties. Despite Russian concern about new members of the nuclear club, Russian reactions are likely to remain limited to protests and calls for restraint. 

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