Selected Missile Abstracts: 1998
Doc. Code: 8074
ABSTRACT: On 16 June 1998, North Korea declared that it would continue to develop, test, and export ballistic missiles. The official Korean Central News Agency said, "we will continue developing, testing and deploying missiles." Former US ambassador to South Korea, Donald Gregg, met with officials of the North Korean delegation to the United Nations, and was told by the North Koreans that they were dissatisfied with the pace of oil deliveries from the United States. North Korea announced that "with missiles of the United States, which is at war with [North Korea] technically, aiming at our territory, we find no reason to refrain from developing and deploying missiles to counter them." It is also believed that North Korea is developing a longer-range missile than the No-dong-2 ballistic missile. <<>> Doc. Code: 8603
ABSTRACT: North Korea is ready to deploy a medium-range missile capable of striking Japan. US Defense Secretary, William Cohen, would not divulge whether North Korea had deployed the No-dong missile yet. The No-dong has a 1,000km range. The South Korean Defense Minister Chun Yong-Taek, echoing Cohen's comments, said "we know they have completed development of the missile and they are able to field these weapons when necessary. But when and where they will do this is a question to us also." Cohen acknowledged that the US military had encountered difficulties in the development of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile. THAAD has failed in all five attempts to shoot down an incoming target missile. Cohen said, however, the difficulties with the THAAD program were not unexpected. North Korea is in the process of developing two longer-range missiles called the Taep'o-dong-1 and the Taep'o-dong-2. It is predicted that the Taep'o-dong-2 will be capable of striking targets as far as Alaska. The projected date for deployment is 2002, a year before the US's projected deployment of a national missile-defense system.[1] [1] Washington Times, "Cohen: N. Korean Missile Is Threat," 10 July 1998, p.1, By Bill Gertz. <<>> Doc. Code: 8661
According to the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea successfully launched its first artificial satellite into orbit via a multi-stage rocket. The rocket was launched at 12:07 on 31 August 1998 at a launching station in Musudan-ri, Hwadae county, North Hamgyong Province. The satellite was put into orbit at 12 hours 11 minutes 53 seconds. The process of placing it into orbit took four minutes 53 seconds. The rocket used to launch the satellite comprised three stages. The first stage separated from the rocket in 95 seconds and fell into the Sea of Korea, 253km from the launching station (40 degrees 51 minutes north latitude, 139 degrees 40 minutes east longitude). The second stage separated from the rocket within 266 seconds and fell into the Pacific Ocean, 1,646km from the launching station (40 degrees 13 minutes north latitude, 149 degrees 07 minutes east longitude). The third stage placed the satellite into orbit within 27 seconds after separating from the second stage. The satellite is currently in an oval orbit that runs 218.82km nearest to the earth, and 6,978.2km furthest from it. One revolution of its orbit around the earth takes 165 minutes 6 seconds. The satellite is equipped with necessary sounding instruments and is currently transmitting melodies of North Korean revolutionary hymns in 27 MHz. Its purpose is to: (1) contribute to North Korean scientific research for peaceful use of outer space, (2) confirm the calculation basis for future satellite launches, and (3) "encourage the Korean people in the efforts to build a powerful socialist state under the wise leadership of General Secretary Kim Jong Il." <<>> Doc. Code: 9010
ABSTRACT: According to weapons proliferation experts, North Korea's Taep'o-dong-1 missile test on 31 August 1998 demonstrated that it had developed a two-stage intermediate-range missile faster than some US analysts expected. They also said that with the help of Russia, North Korea could develop a longer-range Taep'o-dong-2 missile within several years, which would place Alaska and Hawaii at risk of being hit. According to the Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Henry Sokolski, both North Korea and Russia are assisting Iran in developing extended-range missiles. He believes that North Korea is learning, secondhand, from transferring technology, how to build intercontinental rockets. According to a key advisor to President Clinton on defense and arms-control policies, Robert Bell, North Korea will face a "daunting and unique" challenge in developing the next step to the longer-range Taep'o-dong-2 missile. The Taep'o-Dong-2 missile is expected to have a range of 3,700 miles, thereby allowing it to hit Alaska and Hawaii. A lighter version of the missile would be capable of travelling 6,000 miles, which would make it capable of hitting the Western United States with a nuclear, chemical or biological warhead. Bell said that he is confident that there will be a three-year strategic warning of an intercontinental-range threat. However, members of the Donald Rumsfeld panel said that North Korea is "working hard" on the Taep'o-dong-2 and could deploy it only after performing a single test. The panel said that history shows that the United States will not have the three-year warning it expects. This was clearly seen in 1993 when the United States failed to detect North Korea's deployment of its single-stage No-dong missile. <<>> Doc. Code: 9021
ABSTRACT: According to Chung Gap Yul, a North Korean scientist who defected in 1996, North Korea has the capability of placing a satellite in orbit. He said that North Korea's rocket and satellite development, assisted by Soviet technology, began in the mid-1970s. His statement followed North Korea's claim that it launched a "scientific" satellite into orbit on 31 August 1998. The United States, Japan, and South Korea had previously said that North Korea launched a newly developed two-stage ballistic missile, rather than a satellite. <<>> Doc. Code: 9026
ABSTRACT: On 31 August 1998, North Korea conducted the first flight test of its two-stage intermediate-range Taep'o-dong-1 missile. It was the longest flight of any missile test conducted, and was the first firing of a ballistic missile since the May 1993 No-dong-1 test. The Taep'o-dong-1 was launched from the Hwadaegun Missile Test Facility on the east coast of North Korea. The first stage of the missile separated soon after lift-off, landing in international waters approximately 300km away from the launch site. The second stage continued east over the Japanese island of Honshu and landed in the Pacific Ocean. The total flight distance was estimated to be 1,380km. US intelligence agencies first noticed increased activity at the Hwadaegun Missile Test Facility in mid-August 1998, which led them to suspect the possibility of a missile test. Shortly thereafter they also observed the movement of Korean People's Navy vessels into the East Sea. On 27 August 1998, US intelligence detected the final reparations for the missile test and moved its surveillance equipment into place. The test was tracked by US aircraft and ships. Following the test, Japan's Self Defence Forces sent three destroyers and patrol aircraft to the impact area in the Pacific ocean to search for wreckage. There are several possible motives for North Korea's missile launch. First, the launch demonstrated that North Korea has the ability to strike US military facilities in Japan and on the island of Okinawa. Second, the launch may have been a demonstration of North Korea's missiles and related technologies to such potential importers as Iran, Libya and Pakistan. Third, it may have been an attempt to influence negotiations between North Korea and the United States. North Korea is currently plagued with economic difficulties, and has requested that the United States provide $500 million annually in order for it to suspend its missile development program. Lastly, the launch could have been timed to coincide with Kim Chong-Il's appointment to the presidency on 9 September 1998. The missile test indicates that North Korea has made progress in multi-staging, clustering and guidance. Progress can be partially attributed to assistance from engineers and specialists who formerly worked in Russia and the Ukraine. It is believed that North Korea also gained knowledge from experiences and technologies exchanged with the Pakistani Ghauri and Iranian Shahab-3 missile projects. The missile launch was viewed negatively in the international arena. Japan reacted by indefinitely postponing the signing the Korean Energy Development Organization's cost-sharing resolution. The resolution would have provided North Korea with two light-water nuclear reactors. Taiwan viewed the launch as a security threat due to the fact that it could now be targeted with the Taep'o-dong-1 missile. China has requested a negotiated resolution to the situation, and Russia has issued contradictory statements regarding prior notification of the launch and its ability to detect the missile test. The Taep'o-dong-1 is only one of three intermediate-range ballistic missile programs that North Korea is pursuing. The others include the No-dong-1 and the Taep'o-dong-2. The No-dong-1, with an estimate range of 1,300km, became operational in late 1997. The Taep'o-dong-2, while is still in the early stages of development, is expected to be ready for testing sometime between the years 2000-2004. It is estimated that the Taep'o-dong-2 will have a range of 4,000-6,000km, which will place Hawaii and Alaska in its target range. North Korea's goal is to develop the capability to strike the United States. <<>> Doc. Code: 9024
ABSTRACT: According to US defense officials, North Korea attempted to launch a small satellite into orbit on 31 August 1998. The United States had originally suspected that the rocket used to launch the satellite was a two-stage Taep'o-dong ballistic missile. The rocket that was launched was significantly more powerful than first reported. US defense and intelligence officials now believe that the rocket had three stages. The third stage, which was powered by solid-fuel, broke up over the Pacific Ocean. The failure proves that North Korea has not yet mastered solid-fuel technology. However, it also shows that North Korea's missile program is more ambitious and advanced than was previously believed. This is a significant technological leap for North Korea's missile program. According to a US government official, if North Korea perfected its third stage, its missiles would have a range of approximately 3,500 miles, placing Alaska within target range. North Korea claimed that it successfully placed a satellite into an oval orbit around the earth. It has said that the satellite was placed into orbit for both, peaceful scientific purposes, and to broadcast "immortal revolutionary hymns" in honor of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. The launch was conducted a few days before the 50th anniversary celebration of North Korea and the promotion of Kim Jong Il to chairman of the National Defense Commission. The United States Space Command at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado has been unable to verify North Korea's claims about the satellite. Additionally, officials at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies have been unable to tune into the hymns. According to state department spokesman, James P. Rubin, the United States believes that North Korea attempted to launch a small satellite into orbit, but has concluded that the satellite failed to reach orbit. Rubin also said that the launch confirmed North Korea's "inherent capability to threaten its neighbors." The state department recently announced that North Korea agreed to resume talks on its missile program in October in New York City. The talks were suspended last year after two North Korean diplomats defected to the United States. <<>> Doc. Code: 8684
ABSTRACT: US intelligence agencies have tracked debris from North Korea's failed satellite launch, nearly 4,000 miles into the Pacific Ocean. According to one US official, the satellite broke into several pieces just seconds before reaching orbit, indicating that a warhead "could potentially have gone that far." US Rep. Curt Weldon said that the fact that debris from the Taep'o-dong-1 missile spread so far into the Pacific Ocean is a clear sign that North Korea may already have the capability of hitting parts of the noncontiguous United States. Further, Pentagon spokesman, Kenneth Bacon, said that the capability of launching a satellite directly correlates to that of projecting payloads over a longer range. Regardless of whether the satellite exploded, the launch displays North Korea's enhanced capability, or rather its attempt to build one. According to Bacon, the solid-fueled three-stage missile is estimated to have a range between 2,408-3,720 miles. According to initial estimates, the range was approximately 1,000 miles. According to Weldon, the satellite program has come as "an extremely troubling technical surprise," which indicates that North Korea's missile program is much farther along than what US intelligence had suspected. The launch has caused several US officials to argue further for rapid deployment of a national missile defense. However, the Clinton administration does not feel that a defense system is necessary at this point in time. According to Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Gen. Henry H. Shelton, the Pentagon will have years of warning before the threat of a long-range missile emerges, meaning that a national missile defense system is not presently necessary. The White House Press Secretary, Michael McCurry, acknowledged that the launch was a "serious matter." However, he also said that in order for it to become a real threat, North Korean must first perfect its third-stage technology, as well as that of the return of the re-entry vehicle through the earth's atmosphere to hit its target without burning up. The discovery of North Korea's space-satellite program has come as a complete surprise to US intelligence agencies. According to the Central Intelligence Agency, North Korea's effort to build the satellite was not "something that was widely reported. " North Korea did, however, make a statement in the early-1990s that it was seeking a space launch and satellite capability. The announcement came shortly after South Korea launched a satellite into orbit. US intelligence then discovered the development of the Taep'o-dong-1 missile following North Korea's announcement of it sometime in late 1993/early 1994. Until the launch, the US intelligence community believed that North Korea only had the technological capability for a single-stage missile. <<>> Doc. Code: 9006
ABSTRACT: According to US intelligence officials, North Korea in June 1998 delivered warhead canisters for the medium-range ballistic missile Ghauri and other various weapons materials to Pakistan. The congressional commission on missile threats issued a report on 29 July 1998. The report said that the Ghauri is a version of the North Korean medium-range ballistic missile No-dong. The report's authors said that "we believe Pakistan has acquired production facilities for this missile as well." <<>> Doc. Code: 9029
ABSTRACT: According to the leader of North Korea's space program, Kwan Ding Hwa, North Korea's "further efforts to manufacture satellites is very promising." He said that North Korea's successful satellite launch last month had not only demonstrated the merits of his country's multistage rockets but also "laid a solid basis for space experiments and launches of more satellites, including communication ones." With regard to the satellite launch, he said that it carried four main tasks: to place satellites into orbit on multistage rockets; refine systems of the booster rocket; test electronic equipment; and, improve the system for monitoring the rocket and the satellite. According to Hwa, all launch preparations for the satellite had been completed by the early 1990s. While the development of multistage booster rockets started in 1980s, the satellite project had started "decades ago." <<>> Doc. Code: 9066
ABSTRACT: North Korea has asked the United States for an annual compensation of $500 million in return for not exporting missile technology. North Korea is believed to have sold Scud-C and No-dong missiles to Iran and Pakistan. It is also developing the longer-range Taep'o-dong. Iran is expected to test a multiple-state Shahab-4. Similarly, Pakistan is developing several multiple-stage missiles, including the Ghaznavi, which may be a Taep'o-dong copy. <<>> Doc. Code: 9082
ABSTRACT: On 25 September 1998, North Korea said that "whether the launch of our artificial satellite is used for military purposes or not entirely depends on the attitude of the United States and other hostile forces." The statement came in the aftermath of US allegations that North Korea is building an underground nuclear facility and that it launched a ballistic missile. North Korea claims that it is not building an underground nuclear facility but rather an underground economic structure. In addition, it claims that it launched a satellite not a ballistic missile. North Korea argues that both issues are "entirely issues of sovereign rights" and has reacted to US statements with outrage. <<>> Doc. Code: 8692
ABSTRACT: On 1 October 1998, US officials led by Assistant Secretary of State, Robert Einhorn, held missile-related talks with North Korea. Discussion focused on North Korea's production and export of Scud missiles and missile-related technology and equipment. US officials warned North Korea that additional missile launches or exports could invite negative consequences. The CIA and the US state department believe that North Korea is building a nuclear-related facility in an underground installation 23 miles from the old nuclear facility at Yongbyon.[1] [1] Martin Sieff, "N. Korea, U.S. Meet On Missiles," Washington Times, 2 October 1998, p.A15. <<>> Doc. Code: 9062
ABSTRACT: On 1 October 1998, US state department spokesperson James Rubin said that North Korea could face "very negative consequences" if it conducted further tests or exported long-range missiles. Rubin said North Korea's launch of the Taep'o-dong-1 on 31 August 1998 was a step forward in its missile development program and a matter of "deep concern to the United States." Another launch of a long-range missile or transfers of missiles would be contrary to US interests and could spark an arms race in the region. The United States is also concerned with North Korea's production and export of Scud missiles and missile technology to other countries, including Iran, Syria and Pakistan. <<>> Doc. Code: 9100
ABSTRACT: US intelligence and diplomatic sources have alleged that North Korea is building two new launch facilities for its medium-range Taep'o-dong-1 missile at Yongo dong and Chiha-ri. Workers have already completed the bunkers for propellant fuel at he Yongo dong site and the facility could become operational as early as 1999. A similar facility is being built at Chiha-ri, which is the technical support base for North Korea's Scud missile brigade. North Korea is also believed to have stepped up production of its No-dong missiles, which could be exported to Syria, Pakistan, Iran or Libya. Intelligence reports also suggest that North Korea intends to test-fire a second ballistic missile in early December 1998. US officials fear that North Korean missile threats might cause Japan to renege on its commitment to fund the construction of two light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea. Clinton administration officials have sought China's help to deliver a message to North Korea, emphasizing that further missile launches over Japan could jeopardize the 1994 Agreed Framework. <<>> Doc. Code: 9205
ABSTRACT: US military analysts suspect that North Korea is preparing to conduct another test of its multi-stage Taep'o-dong-1 ballistic missile. Although technical "glitches" could postpone the tests until spring 1999, North Korea is expected to conduct the tests before the end of 1998. On 8 December 1998, Japan's NHK television quoted Japanese Defense sources as saying that US spy satellites had detected what appeared to be three missile bases under construction.[1] According to the Pentagon, the first site being built is a launch facility located approximately 50 miles south of the Chinese border at Yongo dong. The second sight, located at Chiha-ri, is a support base for North Korea's Scud missile brigade. It is suspected that the facilities are being built at depths ranging from 165 to 330 feet. Japan's NHK television also stated that a suspected fuel storage facility will be completed in a year or two at one of the three sites. According to senior research scientist at the Federation of American Scientists Charles Vick, it is possible that the new sites are being prepared for tests and commercial launch demonstrations, rather than as a military build-up. US military officials, however, disagree with this statement. It has also been suggested that North Korea may launch additional Taep'o-dong-1 missiles in order to coax the United States into granting North Korea additional financial assistance.[2] North Korea's Vice-Foreign Minister Kim Kye-kwan has demanded that the United States offer North Korea billions of dollars in exchange for its halting the export of long-range missiles to the Middle East. Contrary to US statements, South Korea's Director-General of North American [Affairs] Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kwon Chong-nak, denied on 3 December 1999 that North Korea was preparing to launch another multi-stage missile. He said that although it is uncertain whether North Korea will launch another missile in the future, he does not believe that it would follow so soon after the one on 31 August 1998. Moreover, he said that South Korea has not linked the movement of missiles to a future launch. North Korea relies on multi-stage rocket booster technology for ballistic missiles and space-launch vehicles as two of its potential "high-dollar" exports. According to a US military official, North Korea conducted the 31 August 1998 missile launch as a means of demonstrating to potential importers that it is capable of conducting a space launch. It is also suspected that the launch was meant to verify the accuracy of its Taep'o-dong-1 and to prove that the Taep'o-dong-2 will be an option in the future. It may have also been performed so as to provide North Korea with leverage for its demands that the US pay $1 billion annually for 3 years to convert missile production plants to something of a less "threatening nature". The type of missile North Korea chose to test in August 1998 surprised the United States. It had expected a more conventional two-stage booster test. US analysts are still determining the type of space technology North Korea used in its missile launch. It is known that the Taep'o-dong-1 booster was used as the basic space launch vehicle that carried the Kwangmyongsong (Bright Star) No.1 satellite. Vick has suggested, however, that the first stage comprised the No-dong booster, the second stage a modified Scud C or D, and that the third stage was a 15,000-45,000-lb-thrust solid-motor from an SA-2 antiaircraft missile system modified for vacuum-thrust operations. David Wright, a physicist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, disagreed with Vick and said that North Korea may have employed other options such as the French Stromboli SW motor which was probably copied by Pakistan for use in its Hatf 1 and Hatf 2 missiles. However, the most recent US Air Intelligence Agency report suggests that North Korea may have used the Chinese M-11 in the upper stage of its Taep'o-dong rocket. Additional Sources: [1] "More N. Korean Missile Sites," AP, 8 December 1998. [2] "South Korea Denies North Preparing For Another Missile Launch," Yonhap (Seoul), 4 December 1998. <<>> Acknowledgements:
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