North Korea Special Collection

The Forthcoming Perry Report

On 12 November 1998, US President Bill Clinton appointed former US Secretary of Defense William J. Perry as the US North Korean Policy Coordinator. Perry was tasked with (a) consulting and coordinating US North Korean policy with South Korea, Japan, and China, (b) undertaking a comprehensive review of current US foreign policy toward North Korea, and (c) making a detailed report to the Clinton administration including policy recommendations on modifying US policy toward North Korea.

Perry's appointment was an attempt to give high-level attention and direction to the US' North Korea policy at a time when the administration's policy of cautious engagement with North Korea was under attack from conservatives in Congress and the media, as well as conflicting bureaucratic agencies in Washington.[1] The 1994 US-North Korean Agreed Framework under which North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear program in return for the delivery of heavy-fuel oil and two 1,000MW light-water nuclear reactors was in trouble. Funding problems, a consequence of the East Asian financial crisis, and political pressure from conservatives within the United States, were compounded by intelligence leaks that North Korea had breached the 1994 accord by pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons program at an alleged secret underground nuclear site at Kumchang-ri.[2]

It also became evident that the totalitarian regime of Kim Jong-il was unlikely to collapse soon. Pyongyang came to regard its nuclear ambiguity and ballistic missile programs as bargaining chips in its negotiations with the United States and viewed them as essential tools to guarantee regime survival in the face of economic collapse and diplomatic isolation. In Seoul, the Kim Dae-jung administration recognized this reality and from early 1998 embarked on a bold "Sunshine" or engagement policy with North Korea. Thus, pressure increased on Washington to explore the prospects of normalizing economic and political relations with Pyongyang in order to achieve the twin US foreign policy goals of regional stability and nonproliferation in Northeast Asia.[3]

As part of the process of consulting with regional actors, Perry traveled to South Korea, Japan, and China in December 1998.[4] He also undertook a diplomatic mission to North Korea in late May 1999, the highest-ranking US representative to visit the country since former US president Jimmy Carter visited Pyongyang in June 1994. During his visit, Perry met with senior North Korean leaders including the Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly Kim Yong-nam, Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan, and General Ri Yong-chol, director of the North Korean National Defense Commission, and held discussions on both missile and nuclear proliferation as well as the future direction of US-North Korean relations.

Although Perry was unable to meet with supreme North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, he characterized the talks as "intensive, extremely substantive, and quite valuable".[5] South Korean government sources later disclosed that during his visit to North Korea, Perry proposed a comprehensive plan for engaging North Korea including a package of economic and political incentives if North Korea abandoned its nuclear and missile programs.[6]

The contents of the forthcoming Perry report and the attendant policy recommendations are a closely guarded secret. However, the report's salient features have been leaked by various sources ranging from the South Korean government to Perry himself.[7]

On 25 February 1999, the Wall Street Journal reported that Perry will propose that the current US policy of cautiously engaging North Korea be abandoned in favor of a bold approach. The United States should engage North Korea vigorously for a short-period of time during which it should offer the possibility of normalizing political-economic relations with North Korea in order to achieve US foreign policy objectives, including the curtailing of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

However, if engagement fails, the United States should adopt a stringent containment policy toward North Korea. It should decrease diplomatic contact to the point where North Korea becomes isolated from the rest of the world until the Kim Jong-il regime collapses under the weight of its own economic and political contradictions.[8]

Perry has hinted that his report will include policy incentives should North Korea cooperate with the United States, as well as disincentives if North Korea remains intransigent and unwilling to cooperate. On 11 March 1999, Perry said that if North Korea refused to be reasonable, "We would expect to have the United States, Japan, and South Korea united in both the need for sterner measures and the way in which we carry them out." Perry said these measures could include military strikes and "across the board" economic blockades of North Korea.[9]

On 26 March 1999, Perry explained that his report to the Clinton administration would not include "time limits" for US engagement of North Korea and that he "believes military confrontation is so serious, we should exhaust every diplomatic measure."[10] South Korean President Kim Dae-jung has suggested that Perry's report will include recommendations to lift the economic embargo against North Korea and normalize US-North Korean diplomatic relations.[11] The US state department has refused to comment on the veracity of these rumors and has called Perry's report "a work in progress."[12]

There is some feeling within the Clinton administration that Perry's policy recommendations assume that the Korean peninsula is inevitably heading towards a crisis and that North Korea must be dealt with now. Observers doubt that all of Perry's policy recommendations will be adopted by the Clinton administration.[13] In fact, Perry has contradicted the Clinton administration on several occasions, raising the ire of some officials. Perry has asserted that there is evidence that North Korea is continuing to develop nuclear weapons, despite Clinton's certification to Congress that there is "no basis to conclude that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea has violated" the 1994 Agreed Framework.[14]

A significant part of Perry's assignment has been to coordinate policies of the United States with those of Japan, South Korea, and China. Perry had some difficulty in coordinating US policy with South Korea, because Seoul envisioned much more aggressive engagement with North Korea than US policy. In fact, South Korea has been critical of US policies that punished North Korea and there have been regular calls from Seoul for the United States to extend diplomatic recognition to North Korea. South Korean President Kim Dae-jung has emphasized that he agrees with the US policy of engaging North Korea vigorously, but is wary of the US taking any military action against North Korea.[15] However, Perry has made it clear to Seoul that although US policy toward North Korea will be congruent with South Korea's engagement policy, military actions will remain an option for the United States.[16]

Perry also held talks with the Japanese and Chinese governments in December 1998. Japan, which is concerned about North Korea's ballistic missile capability, has been supportive of a tougher US approach toward North Korea and has resisted several pleas from South Korea to improve relations with Pyongyang. On the other hand, China has warned the United States not to push North Korea too hard on the nuclear issue. China has said that it is opposed to North Korea possessing long-range ballistic missiles.[17]

The Perry report was initially expected in spring 1999. However, its publication has been delayed to include the results of the May 1999 Kumchang-ri inspection and North Korea's official response to the US offer of normalization of economic and political relations.[18]

Acknowledgements:
Michael Dutra and Gaurav Kampani,
© Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
Monterey Institute of International Studies

Notes

[1] "State Dept. 11/12 on New North Korea Policy Coordinator," Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network Daily Report, 12 November 1998, <http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet>.

[2] Becker, Elizabeth, "Clinton Advisor Says North Korea is Advancing Its Nuclear Program," 12 March 1999, New York Times, p.8.

[3] Jun Kwan-woo, "Perry's N.Korea Report Just Beginning of South Korea-US Policy Coordination," 11 March 1999, Korea Herald (Seoul), <http://www.koreaherald.co.kr>.

[4] "Perry Says US to Base DPRK Policy on Engagement Policy," Yonhap (Seoul), 3 March 1999; in FBIS document FTS19990311001983, 12 March 1999.

[5] "Remarks Made to the Press by Dr. William J. Perry, Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State and US North Korea Policy Coordinator," Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network Special Report, 2 June 1999, <http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet>.

[6] Son Key-young, "Perry's 4-Day NK Visit Focuses on Peace Initiatives," Korea Times (Seoul), 21 May 1999, <http://www.koreatimes.co.kr>.

[7] Ricks, Thomas E. and Michael Schuman, "US Review of North Korea Policy Sets the Stage for Harsher Stance," 25 February 1999, Wall Street Journal, p.2.

[8] Ibid.

[9] Becker, Elizabeth, "Clinton Advisor Says North Korea is Advancing Its Nuclear Program," 12 March 1999, New York Times, p.8.

[10] Son Key-young, "No 'Limits' for Engagement Policy: Perry," 26 March 1999, Korea Times (Seoul), <http://www.koreatimes.co.kr>.

[11] Lee Chang-sup, "Perry Report to Change S-N Korean Relations," 24 March 1999, Korea Times (Seoul), <http://www.koreatimes.co.kr>.

[12] Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network Daily Report, 23 April 1999, <http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet>.

[13] Ricks, Thomas E. and Michael Schuman, "US Review of North Korea Policy Sets the Stage for Harsher Stance," 25 February 1999, Wall Street Journal, p.2.

[14] Becker, Elizabeth, "Clinton Advisor Says North Korea is Advancing Its Nuclear Program," 12 March 1999, New York Times, p.8.

[15] "Perry Says US to Base DPRK Policy on Engagement Policy," Yonhap (Seoul), 3 March 1999; in FBIS document FTS19990311001983, 12 March 1999.

[16] Tarrant, Bill, "S.Korea, U.S. Keep Engagement Policy Toward North," 7 December 1998, Reuters; in Yahoo News, <http://dailynews.yahoo.com>.

[17] "Perry Says US to Base DPRK Policy on Engagement Policy," Yonhap (Seoul), 3 March 1999; in FBIS document FTS19990311001983, 12 March 1999.

[18] Don Kirk, "Perry Delays Policy Review on Pyongyang," International Herald Tribune (Paris), 27-28 March 1999.

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