Special Section: Terrorist Attacks on America

Central Asia: A Staging Ground for Retaliatory Strikes?

Kenley Butler, Research Associate, NIS Nonproliferation Program

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Following the October 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen, the United States reportedly sought help from Russia and a number of Central Asian states in launching raids against Usama bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan. Initial reports indicated that the U.S. government was interested in using a Soviet-era base in Tashkent and a military base in Termez. (Termez was the launching pad for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.) Plans reportedly called for several days of bombing, and even commando raids from Termez on locations in northern Afghanistan, including Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz, and Taloqan.[1] The Uzbek government issued a statement that it has never let foreign military formations use its bases and has no intention of doing so in the future.[2]

Within days of the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States, there were reports of negotiations between the United States and Russia on using former Soviet military bases in Central Asia as staging grounds for conducting military actions in Afghanistan. The New York Times reported that a U.S. delegation will head to Moscow to ask Russia for detailed information on Afghanistan and for access to Russian military facilities in the region.[3] The New York Post reported that Russian and U.S. diplomats are negotiating the possible use of two Russian bases in Tajikistan, and a Soviet-era base in Afghanistan.[4] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, however, said on September 14, 2001 that there is not even a hypothetical possibility of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military operations on the territory of the former Soviet republics in Central Asia.[5]

Russian media reported on September 15, 2001, that Turkmenistan's President Saparmurat Niyazov had offered the United States its airports for a military staging ground.[6] A September 14, 2001 report from Turkmenistan indicated that the country's president supports the formation of a coalition to fight international terrorism, but has not discussed details of what form that support might take.[7]

Thus, there is little public evidence that U.S. and Russian leaders are actually discussing the possibility of using bases in Central Asia or Afghanistan. Still, the Central Asian states have many concerns over the possibility of Western military action in their region, even if they do not host Western military forces.

Central Asian Concerns

Of the five Central Asian states, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan would be most affected by military action against suspected terrorists in Afghanistan. (Turkmenistan, which also shares a border with Afghanistan, has a declared policy of "positive neutrality," which prevents it from entering into military alliances of any kind.) The Central Asian states are concerned over possible retribution from Taliban forces for Russian or NATO military actions, and the possible influx of refugees from Afghanistan.

When incursions by armed Islamic groups into the Central Asian states in the spring of 2000 led Russia and Uzbekistan to talk of possible air strikes on Afghan targets from Uzbekistan, the Taliban issued a statement that Uzbekistan would bear responsibility for the consequences, even if the strikes were made by Russian forces.[8] According to the Tajik government, the Taliban has declared that its forces will attack Tajikistan and Uzbekistan if Russia takes measures against Afghanistan.[9] The same threat is likely to hold true if the Western powers launch attacks on Afghanistan from Central Asia.

The Central Asian states also fear an influx of Afghan refugees. The Northern Alliance, which controls about 10 percent of Afghan territory contiguous to the Tajik border, may have been dealt a fatal blow with the September 10, 2001 assassination of Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud.[10] If the Northern Alliance begins to crumble in the absence of its leader, it is feared that those living in Alliance-controlled territory will likely flee north to Tajikistan to escape the expected Taliban onslaught. Thousands of Afghan refugees already reside in the former Soviet republics and the Central Asian economies cannot absorb the large numbers of refugees that may yet flee.

Military Capabilities and Regional Security Structures

The armed forces of the Central Asian countries are not prepared to defend their borders against large-scale military incursions from the south. Of the five Central Asian states, Uzbekistan is thought to have the largest and best-equipped forces, including nearly 60,000 soldiers, 250 tanks, 135 combat aircraft, and 42 attack helicopters. The weakness of the Uzbek forces, however, was shown by their month-long struggle to expel armed rebels from Uzbek territory in August 2000. Tajikistan's forces are substantially smaller, about 6,000 men and 35 tanks. In addition, Tajikistan struggles with the challenge of uniting private armies that fought on opposite sides during the country's civil war (1992 - 1997).[11] Russian forces in Tajikistan number between 20,000 and 25,000, including members of the border-guard service. (See Michael Jasinski's piece, Russian Military Capabilities in Central Asia, for more information on Russian forces in Tajikistan.)

Recent disputes between the Central Asian states may prevent them from responding in a coordinated fashion to threats from the south. In recent years, Tajikistan has accused Uzbekistan of housing an ethnic Uzbek who attempted to orchestrate coups against the Tajik president in 1997 and 1998. Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan objected when Uzbekistan led unannounced bombing raids over the territories of Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to root out armed rebel groups. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were further outraged when Uzbekistan laid mines along their undemarcated borders. Both the bombing and mine-laying have resulted in civilian casualties.

China and Russia have attempted to create cooperative regional security structures in Central Asia, in part to address the threat of incursions from Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a forum for discussion rather than a formal military alliance, though its members have declared that they are "prepared to cooperate closely in the uncompromising battle with international terrorism."

The Collective Security Treaty (CST) of May 1992 (also known as the Tashkent Treaty) has provisions that require its members to provide necessary aid to each other "in the event of armed terrorism." The CST, however, lacks the necessary financial resources, and its current signatories (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) may lack the unified will to collaboratively repel a large invasion from Afghanistan. Under the CST, 13,000 troops from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan participated in military exercises in April 2000 known as Southern Shield, to practice countering the small-scale incursions the region saw in 1999 and 2000.[12] Although it is no longer a member of the CST, Uzbekistan has agreed with Russia to cooperate in airspace surveillance and air defense, but has reportedly not discussed the joint use of ground forces.[13]

It is unlikely that the SCO and CST will be able to provide the region with a strong united framework for action at this time. However, the events of September 11 and the expected retaliation on targets in Afghanistan will likely strengthen the two organizations and lead to a better regional security structure in the future.

Conclusion

It appears unlikely that Central Asia will be used as a staging ground for a Western-led assault on targets in Afghanistan. Initial reports of ongoing negotiations between the United States, Russia, and Turkmenistan on the topic have been denied. A more likely scenario would stage Western-led strikes elsewhere, perhaps Pakistan. Russia and the Central Asian states will have their hands full merely coping with refugees and setting up a defensive screen against possible Taliban-led retribution.

Sources:

[1] Ahmed Rashid, "US seeks alliance with Moscow for raid on bin Laden," The Daily Telegraph, 22 November 2000; in Eurasianet, http://www.eurasianet.org/resource/cenasia/hypermail/200011/0055.html.
[2] "Uzbeks deny ‘willingness' to let US use its bases to attack Afghan Taleban," Kommersant, 30 November 2000; in Uzbek Information Service, http://uzland.narod.ru/2000/december/12_01.htm#afghan.
[3] Elisabeth Bumiller, Jane Perlez, "A Vow to Erase Terrorist Networks—bin Laden is Singled Out," New York Times online edition, http://www.nyt.com, 13 September 2001.
[4] Niles Lathem, "U.S. May Sock Bin Laden from Russian Bases," New York Post online edition, http://www.nypost.com/seven/09142001/news/nationalnews/32524.htm, 14 September 2001.
[5] "Russia: Defense Minister Says No Strikes From Central Asia," RFE/RL, http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2001/09/14092001133747.asp.
[6] Vladimir Mukhin, "SshA ishchut voyennyye bazy v SNG," Nezavisimaya gazeta, No. 172 (2482), http://www.ng.ru/events/2001-09-15/1_base.html, 15 September 2001.
[7] "Turkmenistan gotov prisoyedinitsya k deystviyam mirovogo soobshchestva, napravlennym na borbu s terrorizmom," Turkmenistan.ru, http://www.turkmenistan.ru/index.cfm?r=2&d=1085&op=viw, 14 September 2001.
[8] "Afghan Taleban protests Uzbek air ‘violations'," Uzbek Information Directory, http://uzland.narod.ru/2000/06_03.htm, 27 May - 3 June 2000.
[9] "Russia to Become More Active in Central Asia," WPS, Issue 75, 30 June 2000, http://wps.wm.ru:8101/chitalka/military/en/20000630.shtml.
[10] Omar Samad, "Massoud, Afghan National Hero, Freedom Fighter and Resistance Leader, Dies," Azadi Afghan Radio, http://www.afghanradio.com/news/2001/september/sep15a2001.html, 15 September 2001.
[11] IISS, Military Balance, 2000/2001; in Alert Net, http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/countryprofiles/.
[12] Bruce Pannier, "Central Asia: Security on Agenda for Albright Visit," RFE/RL Newsline, http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2000/04/F.RU.000417135623.html.
[13] "Uzbek president warns air force could strike Afghan bases if necessary," Uzbek Information Directory, http://uzland.narod.ru/2000/06_03.htm, 27 May - 3 June 2000.

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