Research

Threat Assessment of CBW Terrorism

In March 1995, the Japanese doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo launched a terror attack on the Tokyo subway with the chemical nerve agent sarin, killing a dozen people and injuring more than a thousand. Although it is difficult to extrapolate the probability of another such incident, governments cannot afford to be complacent. Assessing the threat of future incidents of CBW terrorism requires an understanding of the motivations, capabilities, and patterns of behavior of groups that might be drawn to these weapons. To this end, the CBWNP has developed a comprehensive database of more than 800 cases since 1900 in which domestic or international terrorists and criminals sought to acquire or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons. By maintaining and augmenting this database, the Program provides the academic, policy, and law enforcement communities with empirical data needed to better understand the threat and to prepare for the most likely contingencies.

The CBWNP has also commissioned in-depth case studies of more than twenty incidents of CBW terrorism that have occurred since World War II. These cases have been researched from a variety of primary sources, including court documents, press accounts, police reports, declassified FBI files, and interviews, with the aim of identifying terrorist motivations and patterns of behavior. An edited book containing the first set of case studies, titled Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons, was published by MIT Press in April 2000. A second volume of case studies is currently in preparation. The Program has also initiated a study of “agro-terrorism,” the terrorist use of chemical and biological agents to target livestock or crops.

The Role of China in the CBW Nonproliferation Regime

This study, funded by the U.S. Institute of Peace, is examining the attitudes and policies of the People's Republic of China and Taiwan with respect to the implementation of the CWC, the negotiation of a compliance protocol for the BWC, and nonproliferation export controls. The research effort is being carried out jointly by the CBWNP and the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at CNS and involves field research trips to both China and Taiwan.

CBW Country Profiles

In collaboration with the Proliferation Research and Assessment Program (PRAP) program, the CBWNP is compiling a wide variety of open-source information on the CBW capabilities of several states of proliferation concern. These CBW country profiles will be combined with data on nuclear and missile programs to provide an overview of each country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities.

History of the Soviet Biological Weapons Program

In April 1992, Russian President Boris Yeltsin admitted that until at least 1992, the Soviet Union and then Russia had conducted a top-secret biological warfare program in violation of the BWC, which Moscow had ratified in 1975. Some analysts believe that elements of this offensive program may still exist. CBWNP staff are conducting a major study of former BW activities and facilities in Russia, including field trips to various parts of the former Soviet Union and interviews with Soviet bioweapons experts now living in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere. The study will result in a book-length report.

Toxins and International Arms Control

Approximately 500 different types of toxins—natural poisons produced by microorganisms, animals, and plants—are known to science, and artificial toxins have been produced by advanced biotechnology techniques. Toxins can be useful research tools in physiology and pharmacology, and a few, such as botulinum toxin and ricin, have therapeutic value in medical practice. Yet toxins can also be employed for nefarious purposes such as crime, terrorism, and warfare. With funding from the MacArthur Foundation, CBWNP staff are analyzing how best to preserve the legitimate scientific and therapeutic applications of toxins while preventing their military or terrorist use.

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