CNS Resources on the Missile Crisis over Cyprus

Countdown to Conflict?

The impending delivery of Russian S-300PMU-1 air-defense missile batteries to Cyprus poses an intricate challenge for international diplomacy. Their deployment endangers the tense but stable stand-off along the "Green Line" separating the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities on the island, and may lead to war between Greece and Turkey – NATO allies but regional rivals. Turkey has threatened to attack ships carrying missile components and to destroy any missiles deployed on Cyprus, while Greece has pledged to aid Cyprus in the event of conflict with Turkey. Even if S-300PMU-1 deployment is carried out without violence, it is likely to spur the further acquisition of sophisticated arms in the region.

Shortly after the S-300PMU-1 deal was concluded by Cyprus and Russia in January 1997, both parties said that the missiles would not be delivered for 16 months, thus allowing time for negotiations on the island's governance and demilitarization. Despite the efforts of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and US Special Envoy to Cyprus Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, among others, talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots have not been successful. Although recent reports indicate that delivery has been postponed, the missile batteries are scheduled to be deployed by December 1998.

The Russian-made S-300PMU-1 system has anti-aircraft as well as theater missile defense (TMD) capabilities. Although defensive in nature, the deployment of a such a system may catalyze threats to international peace and security by upsetting a regional balance of military forces, undercutting other states' deterrent capabilities, or by shielding forces that can be used for offensive attacks. TMD deployment may therefore spur an unstable offense-defense arms race for relative advantage, undermine the prospects for arms control, and exacerbate political strife between rival states. Deployment of S-300PMU-1 missile batteries by the Greek Cypriots would not alter the fundamental balance of military power on Cyprus, as Turkey would retain military preponderance. However, even though it has no direct offensive capability, the system could seriously degrade Turkey's long-standing air superiority in the region.

Resolving the antagonism between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities on Cyprus has proven intractable over the last quarter-century. There is little reason to believe that heightened tensions ensuing from the current controversy will facilitate a political settlement on the island's governance. The number of actors involved and the diversity of their interests makes resolution of the S-300PMU-1 dispute particularly difficult. The military and political stakes are high for the Greek and Turkish Cypriots as well as for their respective patrons. Forceful public statements by officials in all four political entities have circumscribed their policy options. Domestic political considerations likewise constrain the range of feasible policy alternatives. Russia has important political as well as commercial interests at stake in this arms sale. The evolution of the S-300PMU-1 missile issue will hinge upon the actions of the two parties to the transaction (Cyprus and Russia), on Turkey, and on the response of the United States and the international community.

The Republic of Cyprus, which represents the majority Greek population of the island, seeks through this purchase to deter Turkish military incursions over its airspace. It also seeks to draw international attention to Cyprus, generate international pressure on Turkey to negotiate the withdrawal of Turkish military forces stationed on the island since 1974, and gain Russian support on the UN Security Council. Its attempt to use the delivery of the S-300PMU-1 systems as a bargaining chip has not as yet succeeded.

Beyond the immediate financial benefits of a sale estimated to be worth $400-600 million, Russian defense firms seek to diversify their markets and improve prospects for future sales to Greece, as well as to stimulate international demand for the state-of-the-art Russian TMD system. In this regard, vociferous Turkish objections have enhanced the strategic profile of the S-300PMU-1, an international competitor of the US-made MIM-104 Patriot system in regional TMD markets. The Russian government backs the sale as a response to US and West European disregard for its opposition to NATO expansion, which it views as a threat to Russian security. By encouraging conflict between two NATO allies, the Russian arms sale may foster opposition to further NATO expansion, and demonstrate that it will not passively accept its security and political interests being ignored by the United States.

Turkey objects strongly to deployment of the S-300PMU-1 because it would challenge its air superiority over Cyprus. The system's long range, moreover, could place Turkish aircraft at risk even before they leave their own national airspace. The system would defend military bases built with Greek assistance at Paphos and Larnaca, and protect the flight corridor between Greece and Cyprus. The Turkish military is very concerned about the strategic consequences of S-300PMU-1 deployment on Cyprus, and is highly influential in Turkey's national governance and dominates foreign and national security policymaking.

Diplomatic efforts by the United Nations and the United States to avert conflict over Cyprus have been hampered by several factors, including the recent decisions by the European Union to deny Turkey membership in the EU and to begin admission talks with Cyprus; the US sale of MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles to Turkey and Greece and the role of the United States as the leading arms supplier to both countries, which are among the world's leading arms importers; contradictory political and commercial interests and crises that compete for international attention; and limited international influence on Russian, Cypriot, and Turkish decision making.

There are several possible scenarios for the evolution of this dispute. The most dangerous would be for Turkey to carry out its threat to attack ships carrying missile components while they are in transit, or to strike the batteries as they are being deployed on Cyprus. The conflict could escalate to regional war if Greece retaliates against Turkey as pledged in its Joint Defense Doctrine with Cyprus. In response to Turkish threats to destroy the missile systems while in transit, Russia has said that an attack on Russian ships would be an act of war. Although it is far less likely than a Greek military response, if Russian technicians or officials are among the casualties of such an attack, Russia might also respond militarily.

The most propitious but least likely scenario would be the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement on the demilitarization of Cyprus, which would include cancellation of the S-300PMU-1 sale. More probable routes by which conflict could be averted include the establishment of a UN- or US-enforced no-fly zone over the island. Greek Cypriot sources have indicated that they would consider canceling delivery of the batteries in exchange for a flight ban, and the United States reportedly has offered to enforce a moratorium on military flights over the island. Turkish and Russian officials, however, have rejected these proposals. Alternatively, the S-300PMU-1s might be shipped to Cyprus but held in storage rather than being deployed. Again, despite indications of support for this idea by Greek and Greek Cypriot officials, both Turkey and Russia are likely to reject such an alternative. Finally, one or both sides might back away from conflict; Turkey could refrain from carrying out attacks against the S-300PMU-1s, or Cyprus and Russia could agree on delaying delivery of the missiles, or on canceling the deal entirely. This alternative might involve Cyprus' acquisition of an air-defense system with a shorter range.

In all but the most optimistic of scenarios, the increase in tension is apt to lead to escalating military preparations and acquisitions. While the interests of none of the actors involved in the S-300PMU-1 dispute would be served by military conflict, the risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation are serious. The pattern of reciprocal provocation, belligerent rhetoric, and military brinksmanship should arouse international concern that these Mediterranean states – armed with advanced missile systems by foreign suppliers – may be headed toward war.

Michael Barletta, July 1998.
© Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
Monterey Institute of International Studies


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