James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Combating the spread of weapons of mass destruction with training & analysis

CNS Occasional Papers: #2

During the early afternoon of August 31, 1998, North Korea tested what is known in the West as the Taep’o-dong space launch vehicle; flying a ballistic trajectory, this rocket can reach intercontinental ranges. The launch clearly changed the terms of the debate over a number of missile proliferation issues, including the long-running and contentious argument over deployment of national missile defenses in the United States. Indeed, the August test demonstrated that the direct threat to the United States posed by developing country missiles was no longer a theoretical possibility, but rather a demonstrated technical fact. Tipped with a nuclear warhead, North Korea’s missiles would inevitably change the strategic landscape.

But disquiet over P’yongyang’s missile program does not lie solely with its march to an intercontinental strike capability. Equally disturbing is North Korea’s willingness to sell its missile technology to a number of states whose interests are often in conflict with those of the United States and its allies. There is, therefore, no country more central to ongoing concerns over missile proliferation than the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

That said, hard knowledge about the DPRK missile program appears to be in inverse proportion to the concern it generates; hardly surprising given that North Korea is the most insular nation on earth. Nevertheless, in order to respond appropriately to the military and proliferation threats the program poses, we must have a better grasp of how it has evolved during the past four decades.

No other proliferation analyst is better equipped to meet this challenge than Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. He has been closely following North Korea for almost 20 years, with a publication record on P’yongyang’s missile program unmatched by any other author. This body of work comes amid his prolific contribution to the missile proliferation literature on a variety of other topics, including analyses of developments in Iran, Syria, Egypt, and Iraq.

The present text—a version of which will appear in Bermudez’s forthcoming book, tentatively titled The Armed Forces of North Korea (Sydney, Australia: Allen & Unwin)—brings together more than a decade of his work on this important problem. With his dogged research—including interviews with American, Korean, and other officials—Bermudez provides the reader with unique insight into how P’yongyang developed its missiles. The paper does not aim to make policy prescriptions or predictions. Instead, it provides the historical research necessary to set aside misconceptions and clarify how the DPRK’s missile program has actually evolved. By presenting the facts as best they can be determined, this Occasional Paper will provide a stronger basis for understanding the dynamics of missile proliferation in North Korea and elsewhere and for identifying policy options.

Timothy V. McCarthy
Senior Analyst
Monitoring Proliferation Threats Project
Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Monterey Institute of International Studies
November 1999