CNS Occasional Papers: #3

Nonproliferation Regimes At Risk

FOREWORD

The US Senate’s rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in October 1999 has focused international attention on the challenge of sustaining international nonproliferation regimes into the coming century. Indeed, at present most of the nonproliferation regimes (i.e., treaties, organizations, and the norms they promote) are under siege. Proliferation challenges have intensified over the last two years, and have come in many forms and on many different fronts, including:

  • Russia’s economic collapse and the growing difficulty of safeguarding its vast arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and related material, technology, and know-how;
  • emerging Indo-Pakistani nuclear and missile arms races;
  • Iraq’s defiance of United Nations Security Council-mandated weapons inspections;
  • North Korean nuclear and missile brinkmanship;
  • fractious NPT PrepComs auguring likely disputes at the Review Conference in 2000;
  • increased risks of chemical, biological, and radiological terrorism;
  • erosion of US-Russian cooperation on nonproliferation; and
  • widespread complacency among the public at large and their elected representatives.

These and other developments have undermined the nonproliferation regimes to such a degree that their long-term viability is now in question. The CTBT has already been dealt a body blow by the US Senate. Unless creative remedies are identified and corrective action undertaken in the near future, we may soon witness defections from the NPT, the demise of the Missile Technology Control Regime, the crippling of the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the irrelevance of the Biological Weapons Convention.

To address these multifaceted challenges, in July 1999 the Center for Nonproliferation Studies launched a new initiative: formation of the Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group. This international body of seasoned policy practitioners and renowned nonproliferation analysts aims to generate innovative but practical nonproliferation policy recommendations for global adoption and implementation.

This publication compiles works prepared for and based on the first meeting of the Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group, held July 5-7, 1999, in Monterey, CA. Together, these papers comprise a concise yet comprehensive exam-ination of the many new and ongoing proliferation challenges. They also contribute to the vital process of outlining practical steps toward their resolution.

This report and other activities of the Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group have been made possible in part through the generous support of the Ford Foundation, the John Merck Fund, and the W. Alton Jones Foundation.

William C. Potter
Director, Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Monterey Institute of International Studies
November 1999


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