James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
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Outside Publications by CNS Staff

Since the 9/11 attacks, the earlier trickle of reports that al-Qa`ida was seeking to develop chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons, popularly known as weapons of mass destruction (WMD), has developed into a torrent. In fact, the world's media have reported no less than 56 separate incidents involving al-Qa`ida and WMD, 36 of which have come to light since September 2001. Amidst this flurry of speculation concerning al-Qa`ida's purported ability to gas, infect, or irradiate us, the average citizen can be forgiven for believing that the apocalypse is nigh. A sober evaluation of these reports would help to limit their undue psychological impact and permit a reasoned analysis of the potential for an al-Qa`ida WMD attack.

Dealing with the most serious potential threat first – that of operational nuclear devices – various reports claim that 'Usama bin Ladin has acquired between one and forty-eight nuclear warheads, including “suitcase bombs.” None of these reports derives from unimpeachable sources, but rather from unspecified Arab and Israeli intelligence agencies, unnamed Pakistani sources, or anonymous French anti-terrorism experts. While the U.S. government has confirmed the discovery of a blueprint for a “Nagasaki bomb” in a house in Kabul in November 2001, these documents were technically inaccurate and may have represented one of several occasions in which al-Qa`ida was apparently swindled into buying fake radiological materials. If Bin Ladin really had suitcase nuclear devices at his disposal, why did he not use any of them to resist the coalition attack on Afghanistan, and why has he also continued expending efforts to acquire less destructive WMD like “dirty bombs” (radiological dispersal devices) or chemical weapons?

While there is little more than vague hearsay suggesting that al-Qa`ida possesses a nuclear weapons capability, the confirmed recovery of diagrams of U.S. nuclear power plants at abandoned al-Qa`ida facilities suggests that the group may have been planning an attack on a nuclear facility in order to release radioactive contaminants. Al-Qa`ida is also alleged to have tried on at least eight different occasions to acquire uranium and other radiological materials, possibly for use in a “dirty bomb,” and is reported to have succeeded in one case. The most detailed information about these efforts stems from the courtroom testimony of Bin Ladin aide Jamal Ahmad al-Fadhl and the corroborated statement of Bulgarian businessman and former intelligence officer Ivan Ivanov, who describes meeting Bin Ladin in April 2001. Abu Zubayda, a senior al-Qa`ida lieutenant captured earlier this year, has reportedly revealed under interrogation that the group was able to produce a radiological weapon and may have already placed one inside the United States. Government authorities are obviously taking the threat of radiological terrorism seriously – in May 2002, they arrested American converted Muslim José Pedilla on the grounds that he was part of an al-Qa`ida “dirty bomb” plot.

In addition to Bin Ladin's own statements (see chart), files recovered from two al-Qa`ida computers in December 2001 revealed the group's plans to develop a chemical and biological weapons (CBW) program. Unconfirmed reports have identified al-Qa`ida CBW facilities in the Sudan, Yugoslavia and, most recently, in a lawless region of northern Iraq controlled by the extremist Ansar al-Islam group, a Bin Laden ally. Several abandoned CBW laboratories were discovered by coalition forces in Afghanistan, and U.S. officials publicly admitted on 13 September 2002 that the equipment found in one such laboratory near Kandahar suggested that al-Qa`ida had the capability to produce limited quantities of CBW agents.

The available evidence clearly supports CIA Director George Tenet's statement before the Senate in 2000 that al-Qa`ida was seeking to obtain chemical weapons. The best evidence of this is the dramatic al-Qa`ida video footage, released by CNN in August 2002, demonstrating its experiments exposing dogs to toxic chemicals (most likely either cyanide gas or a crude nerve agent). This past year has yielded reports of two alleged cyanide plots, one in Rome in February and the other in London in November, though these have yet to be conclusively linked to al-Qa`ida. More recently, it has been reported that the Iraqi regime has provided the deadly chemical agent VX to the Asbat al-Ansar group, a Lebanon-based Islamist organization allied to al-Qa`ida that is currently operating in an enclave in northern Iraq. This report has not yet been confirmed.

Moreover, uncorroborated testimony in a high-profile Egyptian trial in 1999 indicated that al-Qa`ida had acquired dangerous biological agents such as the anthrax bacterium, the Ebola virus, salmonella, and botulinum toxin, while other reports mentioned plague and ricin. Al-Qa`ida's purported research efforts were focused on weaponizing anthrax, and U.S. forces discovered a partially built biological weapons (BW) lab near Kandahar that was designed to produce anthrax even though no actual agents were found. There is still no conclusive evidence that al-Qa`ida has succeeded in weaponizing any of these agents.

There can be little doubt that al-Qa`ida has made repeated attempts to acquire WMD, albeit with varying degrees of success, and that its leaders are still actively seeking to do so. At this point it can probably be assumed that Bin Ladin and his lieutenants already have the capability to carry out small-scale, relatively crude attacks using chemical and perhaps also biological agents. It is certainly possible that they have also acquired the necessary materials and technical ability to be able to construct “dirty bombs.” While there is no firm evidence of their success thus far, the possibility remains that al-Qa`ida operatives will eventually be able to get their hands on fissile material that can be used to manufacture a nuclear device or, worse still, a tactical nuclear weapon. All of this is a cause for concern, especially given the still formidable financial resources available to the group.

It is often assumed that al-Qa`ida will use such weapons as soon as they manage to acquire them and master the techniques for deploying them. In part, this assumption is based upon the group's own rhetoric. Bin Ladin has repeatedly declared “war” on the United States and has sometimes mentioned WMD in this context, and he and some of his closest associates have claimed that their goal is to kill as many Americans as possible, both active-duty military personnel and the civilians who support them by paying taxes. Moreover, one al-Qa`ida spokesman recently indicated that his organization had the right to kill up to four million Americans, including through the use of WMD, in order to compensate for the alleged Muslim victims of United States “imperialism.” It is also widely believed that religious extremists of all sorts, who tend to regard their own actions as being divinely sanctioned, are more likely to violate long-standing moral taboos against WMD use. This is all the more true of terrorist groups characterized, as al-Qa`ida is, by an apocalyptic ideology, charismatic leadership, a sense of paranoia and grandiosity, an insular structure, an escalatory pattern of violence, and ongoing tactical innovation.

However, given that terrorism is in essence violence for psychological effect, it could be argued that al-Qa`ida's primary goal is to traumatize American citizens to such an extent that they pressure their own government to end its meddling in the Muslim world. Even the group's most complex, deadly, and spectacular assaults, such as those on 9/11, may have been intended primarily to exert maximum psychological impact rather than perpetrate mass murder. Nevertheless, members of al-Qa`ida appear to have no qualms whatsoever about causing large numbers of civilian casualties, and none of the group's spokesmen has ever expressed any regrets about killing innocent people. Therefore, they would certainly not be dissuaded from using WMD simply to avoid causing excessive loss of life. On the contrary, since even the small-scale use of WMD would probably have a more profound psychological impact than a mass casualty terrorist attack using conventional weapons, the temptation to employ its WMD capabilities may eventually prove irresistible to al-Qa`ida.

As a result of the military operations conducted by coalition forces in Afghanistan, the Taliban regime has been ousted and its al-Qa`ida backers have been deprived of sanctuary and a secure operational base. This has led to the exodus of many key al-Qa`ida operatives to more hospitable areas, including the ungovernable frontier regions of neighboring Pakistan. Hence the group's organizational structure, which was always diffuse and transnational, has now become even more decentralized and intermingled with those of other Islamist terrorist groups. On the one hand, this means that it is now probably more difficult for al-Qa`ida's leaders to monitor and coordinate the actions of the group's far-flung cells, which could impede their future efforts to deploy WMD. On the other hand, members of certain al-Qa`ida cells – or perhaps of other Islamist groups seeking to identify with al-Qa`ida – may now, even in the absence of authorization from the leadership, decide to initiate terrorist actions on their own using all the means at their disposal. There has been a significant increase in the volume of relatively small-scale al-Qa`ida attacks in recent months, exemplified by the horrific bombing of a Bali nightclub and the recent attacks on Israeli tourists in Kenya. Even as dispersed local elements of the network carry out these sorts of attacks, it is probable that the group's leaders are currently planning much more elaborate, complex, costly, and spectacular assaults, possibly on U.S. or European soil. In both types of operations, their existing WMD capabilities may well be utilized.

At this juncture al-Qa`ida almost certainly has the capability to carry out at least small-scale WMD attacks, but if and when they will actually do so still remain open questions.