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Outside Publications by CNS Staff

April 30, 2003.

With international attention focused elsewhere, a visit to China by Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes over the past week received little coverage. Nonetheless, Mr Fernandes' China trip is significant in a number of ways.

First, it was the first visit by an Indian defence minister to China in over a decade. Second, the visit, by someone who five years ago was widely (but perhaps erroneously) quoted in the media describing China as India's "security threat No 1", shows that the neighbours have mended fences. Third, at a time when China is in the middle of the Sars crisis and when many international events have been cancelled, Mr Fernandes' visit will be much appreciated.

Sino-Indian relations have come a long way since India tested nuclear weapons in May 1998. The thaw began when key Indian policy makers stopped calling China a threat, and continued when India's then foreign minister, Jaswant Singh, visited Beijing in the summer of 1999. This visit came in the middle of India's confrontation with Pakistan in Kargil. China's apparent neutrality in the dispute was appreciated by India.

Improvements in the bilateral relationship continued with Indian president K. R. Narayanan's visit to China in May 2000; followed by visits to India by Chinese premiers Li Peng and Zhu Rongji in January 2001 and 2002, respectively. Direct flights were restored and bilateral trade reached a record high of close to US$4 billion (HK$31 billion) last year. In the past five years, the two countries have initiated security dialogues and consultation on anti-terrorism, and leaders in both capitals have pledged 5to move faster in resolving the border dispute that led to a war in 1962.

Mr Fernandes' visit was a chance for the two countries' defence establishments to discuss a range of issues.

The boundary question, involving over 125,000 sq km in disputed territories, remains a major obstacle to true normalisation and lasting peace between the two countries.

The fact that the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has stayed peaceful since the 1962 war makes it an issue of lesser urgency in the two capitals.

However, the continued lack of resolution on the issue will impede the development of bilateral relations. The two countries should find ways to negotiate a settlement based on the current LAC, with some mutually agreed adjustments.

China and India have much to gain by significantly expanding their economic co-operation. The current level of bilateral trade is equal to trade between China and Vietnam, a dismal figure. Also, there is a wide range of areas where co-operation is lacking and where opportunities abound.

China's continuing military assistance to Pakistan, in particular the suspected transfers of nuclear and ballistic missiles, has been a major contentious issue between India and China.

The issue of growing Chinese activity in the Bay of Bengal and in Myanmar is also causing concerns in India. China has long maintained such allegations are groundless.

However, mere denial is no substitute for confidence-building. It would be much to China's benefit to overcome India's misgivings without compromising its bilateral relationships with its South Asian neighbours.

The Chinese and Indian governments should avoid viewing each other's relationship with the United States as being aimed at undermining one another's security interests. Such views can be more than just misinformed; they can also be dangerous.

The three countries have much to gain when they co-operate on important regional and global issues and develop their respective bilateral relationships, while they risk unintended entrapment, and could incur unnecessary losses, by playing zero-sum triangular games.

Mr Fernandes' week-long visit to China India ended on an up-beat note. While it will take time to resolve all outstanding issues, he said, "the important thing is the sincerity of both sides to take forward steps".

This year marks an important milestone in Sino-Indian relations. In 1993, the two countries signed the Agreement on Maintaining Peace and Tranquility in the Border Areas along the LAC during Indian prime minister Narasimha Rao's visit to China. The agreement called for the renunciation of force, recognition of and respect for the line of control and resolution of the border issue through negotiations. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's long-awaited visit will take place later this year.

While both countries have kept their 1993 commitments, they need to go beyond this passive peace. China and India could gain a great deal - as will regional and global peace - by taking some bold initiatives in the coming months.