James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Combating the spread of weapons of mass destruction with training & analysis

Outside Publications by CNS Staff

Copyright 2001 Union-Tribune Publishing Co.

In the past few weeks the American public has been deluged with reports of anthrax-laced letters and the potential threat of terrorists using biological and chemical weapons to orchestrate a large-scale attack against the U.S. population. The Capitol has been shut down, the media is literally under attack and authorities seem to be scrambling to keep up with each new assault.

It is little surprise that the incidents are generating widespread fear and uncertainty among America's citizens, despite the laudable efforts of all those involved to maintain calm. Amid the maelstrom, we need the courage to compose ourselves sufficiently to evaluate these attacks from a more sober perspective.

Despite the scant information provided by a media under siege, as well as the tidbits divulged by federal authorities, we can make some general assumptions about the anthrax attacks.

While it is unknown exactly how many anthrax-contaminated letters were sent to targets within the United States, one thing is obvious: the only letters that have tested positive for anthrax spore contamination in the United States are those letters received by media and prominent government individuals.

This targeting has ensured the maximum coverage of these events. The speculation that the letters have been targeted at high profile individuals in order to take full advantage of public hysteria and fear is rising in credibility. The torrent of hoaxes perpetrated by copycats and other individuals serve only to compound the mass panic surrounding the anthrax attacks.

The delivery of anthrax (which is not contagious) through a contaminated letter is not only a very crude and unsophisticated delivery system, but also is highly unlikely to result in a large number of infections, let alone produce mass casualties. Even though a finely milled variety of anthrax was sent to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle's office, the number of people that came in contact with spores from the letter is still negligible in comparison to those that could abound from a more sophisticated delivery method.

The letters sent to both NBC anchor Tom Brokaw and Tom Daschle's offices contained references to either the anthrax powder in the letter or warned that some type of biological incident had occurred, allowing the recipients to start taking antibiotics. One can either assume that the terrorists were overly confident that the anthrax-laced powder in the envelope would successfully infect the intended recipient, or more likely, the perpetrator of the crime had less nefarious objectives and only wanted to create some type of fear and panic.

The attempt to assign responsibility for the recent wave of anthrax-contaminated letters has led to intense speculation from federal authorities and terrorism analysts alike, but thus far, has generated little hard evidence. While two of the letters do make reference to the Sept. 11 terror attacks, investigators have found no direct links to either Bin Laden or the Al-Qaeda network. Ostensibly, a domestic individual or group with the technological know-how could have taken advantage of the fear and hype caused by the heinous Sept. 11 attacks and the attention focused on bin Laden and his terror network. Making reference to the Sept. 11 attacks in the letters could have been an attempt to shift blame to Al-Qaeda.

Given the technical hurdles that would have to be overcome to produce a dried powder capable of infecting people with inhalation anthrax, it is unlikely that any individual or group without a significant amount of technology and scientific know-how could have produced the powder, especially if the powder is as high-quality as has been reported.

Until more evidence emerges, that is about all we will know.

These attacks are frightening, but more for the capabilities and potential they indicate than for the actual physical effects they have had. A degree of fear is both natural and warranted under these circumstances -- over that we have little control. What we can control, however, is our response -- how we deal with this threat and its attendant fear.

When under threat, human beings naturally want to take action to protect themselves. This is difficult when the threat is an invisible bacterial spore and the enemy remains hidden. Yet there are several steps that every American can take to limit the damage to our society. Most importantly: do not give in to panic. This is exactly what the terrorists want. Giving into your terror is completing their handiwork for them.

Despite the frightening specter of anthrax, you are still more likely to perish in a car accident than in a bout with the bacteria. The best precautions are the most basic -- be a little more cautious, a little more aware of your surroundings and use common sense when handling mail or coming across something suspicious. Support your government in its anti-terrorist actions while simultaneously putting pressure on your local authorities to ensure they are as prepared as possible for responding to an attack, in terms of both training and equipment.

The delay in the onset of symptoms that distinguishes a biological attack from a conventional bomb blast, although often more psychologically damaging (people are uncertain whether or not they have been exposed) also has a positive aspect. This delay allows more time to diagnose and treat the effects of the attacks, a time when good preparation and response can have a large impact on the ultimate number of casualties.

The initial shock and panic inspired by the anthrax attacks will eventually subside, even if the attacks do not. Regardless of the threat, history has shown us that as long as attacks are not continuous, human beings eventually adapt.

Furthermore, American society has proven itself to be among the most flexible and innovative in history. We just have to take some of the cultural energy we put into following the latest fashions, fads and political scandals and turn it into resilience to this terrorist menace. Residents of California and Oklahoma seem to lead perfectly happy lives, taking a few basic precautions, even though the next quake or twister could be just around the corner.

There is no doubt that the Sept. 11 outrages and the current anthrax attacks have forever shattered America's emotional cocoon of invulnerability. Even after the current anxiety subsides, long-term lifestyle changes are inevitable. Yet, not all of these will be negative. For instance, the somewhat moribund public health system will almost certainly be reinvigorated, with positive consequences that will extend far beyond dealing with bioterrorism.

This is the first time in most Americans' lives that they have personally had to live under the shadow of a large-scale attack. At times like this, we need to look within ourselves and remember the words of that icon of American spirit, Mark Twain, who cautioned that "Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear -- not absence of fear."

Ackerman and Loeb are both research associates at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in the Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

Go to the CNS Reports index.