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Published in The Moscow Times. Copyright © 2003. All Rights Reserved.
Thursday, Aug. 14, 2003. Page 8

Member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- which include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan -- on Tuesday completed their first-ever joint anti-terrorism exercises, in Kazakhstan and then in Yili of the Xinjiang autonomous region of China. The two-phase, six-day military maneuvers were an important occasion in the SCO's brief history and an indication that the organization has finally left the drawing board and is moving into the second phase of its development.

When the SCO was first established in June 2001, there was great expectation that the regional bloc would be a vital actor in dealing with issues in Central Asia. Originally a multilateral mechanism aimed at stabilizing the border regions between China and the former Soviet Union through confidence-building measures and the reduction of military forces, the Shanghai Five -- as it was known at the time -- has since moved toward taking on combating cross-border terrorist activities as one of its key tasks.

At the 1998 Almaty summit, the Shanghai Five began to move beyond border confidence building to focus on the growing threats of religious extremism, ethnic separatism and emerging terrorism in the region. The Bishkek meeting of the Shanghai Five in August 1999 endorsed the establishment of an anti-terrorism center. In addition, member states gradually introduced regular and institutionalized channels among prime ministers and government officials responsible for foreign policy, defense, public security, border guards and law enforcement.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was formally established on June 15, 2001. The six member states adopted the Shanghai Convention on Fighting Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism. Chinese analysts hail it as a major development in international relations and a model of security cooperation in the post-Cold War era. In May 2002, during an SCO meeting, the member states approved the establishment of a regional anti-terrorist structure, originally planned for Bishkek but it may be moved to Tashkent. The May 2003 SCO summit in Moscow made yet another major step toward the organization's maturity, with the establishment of a secretariat and the designation of its first secretary-general.

While one of the SCO's key tasks is to fight the so-called "three evil forces" -- separatism, extremism and terrorism -- Chinese analysts argue that the organization embodies a new security concept and a new type of multilateral institution in the post-Cold War environment. It is not a military alliance directed against any third parties, but a forum for dialogue and consultation on an equal basis, and a mechanism for enhancing regional cooperation in political and economic spheres.

The "Shanghai Spirit," which is the underpinning of the SCO, has been characterized as containing five "C"s -- confidence, communication, cooperation, coexistence and common interests -- and three "new"s -- a new type of interstate relationships, a new security concept and a new model of regional cooperation.

Indeed, while the immediate focus of the organization is to fight terrorism, the larger issue for the longer term is whether the organization can evolve into a sub-regional arrangement that would contribute to peace, stability and prosperity. Beijing has great interest in seeing it succeed as a counter model to U.S.-led military alliances. Indeed, some analysts have suggested that China may seek to use the organization as a counterweight to U.S. dominance in international politics.

The U.S. war against terrorism has had an unexpected impact on the evolution of the SCO itself. In the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, some SCO member states have begun closer cooperation with the United States, and Russia has acquiesced to a growing U.S. military presence in the region. Indeed, the immediate reactions of the SCO as a viable and effective regional organization have not been viewed favorably by analysts. Many claim its failure to act effectively casts a shadow over the future of the organization as a viable regional security mechanism. Washington's growing influence in the region is obvious.

Chinese analysts have suggested that the longer-term viability of the organization would be based on the emerging new regionalism and could serve important Chinese interests in stability and economic development, energy supplies and cooperation on regional security issues. They point to the signing of the SCO charter, the agreement of SCO member states on regional anti-terrorism institutions and the St. Petersburg declaration of SCO heads of state as indications that instead of the SCO being irrelevant in the post-Sept. 11 environment, its raison d'etre has only been elevated.

As one Chinese analyst describes it, "the SCO's development process has moved on from a period of political declaration and entered a state of perfecting its mechanism." The apparent "aberrations" -- Central Asian states turning to Washington for economic and military assistance, and providing bases for U.S. forces in the region -- are quite understandable foreign policy behavior for relatively small states trying to balance between great powers.

From Beijing's perspective, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have provided both opportunities and challenges for China. The attacks have arrested the downturn of Chinese-U.S. relations and enabled the two countries to develop closer cooperation on combating terrorism and addressing issues of mutual concern. The international efforts in fighting transnational terrorism also assist China's own endeavors to eradicate separatist and terrorist activities within its own territories, in particular in Xinjiang. Sept. 11 further highlights the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

However, the war on terrorism has also resulted in a greater U.S. military presence in Central and South Asia and raised issues about the viability of the SCO as an effective regional organization to address region-wide issues. Central Asia's importance has increased as it affects vital interests of the major powers with regard to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, energy security and the continued struggle against international terrorism.

The SCO has developed institutionalized cooperation and consultation among the six member states over the years. But to become a vital organization and to play a greater role in regional affairs requires a greater commitment from the political leadership and continued efforts to build up the political, economic and security infrastructure. That will remain a daunting challenge in the years ahead. The recent anti-terrorist military exercises represent a major concrete step in that direction.