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Outside Publications by CNS Staff

Saturday, February 15, 2003.

Many Russians feel the United States has pushed North Korea into a corner. Instead of continuing former president Bill Clinton's policy of gradually lifting economic barriers and improving political relations, the Bush administration has branded North Korea part of the "axis of evil", undermining those in North Korea who wanted reform. If the North's actions were partly to blame, the official Russian position has yet to acknowledge this.

Russia's official position towards North Korea did harden after the January 10 announcement that the country was withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the announcement "aroused deep concern". Nonetheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted North Korea's leadership was leaving the door open to negotiations, emphasising the Russian position that the crisis could be resolved peacefully.

The exact role of Russian officials in brokering a solution remains unclear, as the Russian Foreign Ministry has said it would pursue diplomatic efforts to promote dialogue on a "multilateral and bilateral basis" (the latter refers to US-North Korean talks), but that it did not intend to act as a mediator between North Korea and the US.

Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov travelled to Pyongyang on January 16 to present North Korean leader Kim Jong-il with a "package solution". This had reportedly been discussed by Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, US Secretary of State Colin Powell, and the foreign ministers of China, France and South Korea during the second week of January.

The package includes maintaining the nuclear-free status of the Korean peninsula, strict observance of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and fulfilment of promises made in the Agreed Framework; conducting bilateral and multilateral talks with North Korea that would produce security guarantees, and resuming humanitarian and economic aid programmes in North Korea. According to Mr Losyukov, the North Korean leader "was interested" . . . and would study the Russian proposal, and would likely "find something he could use in the plan".

Not all Russians agree, however, on the desirability of this solution. Some scholars suggest North Korea is, in fact, developing nuclear weapons, while others argue Russia's efforts amount to an appeasement of North Korea that would leave the world open to further "nuclear blackmail" in the future.

While Russia has promoted direct US-North Korean talks, it has opposed bringing the issue to the United Nations Security Council. Russia has been particularly concerned that the US might propose the imposition of UN sanctions. The International Atomic Energy Agency this week voted to bring the issue before the Security Council, but the US has privately assured China and South Korea that it would not seek sanctions. Russia voted against the proposal, saying it would only provoke North Korea.

On a somewhat different note, Dmitry Rogozin, chairman of the Russian parliament's international affairs committee, argued that North Korea had made a mistake in demanding a security guarantee from the US and suggested the UN should be the forum for such a guarantee. In a similar vein, lawmaker Vladimir Lukin called the withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty a "strategic mistake" and suggested that if North Korea did not soften its position, Russia, China, South Korea, Japan and the US should meet to co-ordinate their positions on the issue to bring the North back into the system of international controls on nuclear weapons.

The Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy has followed its bureaucratic interests. Although the ministry should have inside knowledge about North Korean nuclear capabilities, Minister of Atomic Energy Alexander Rumyantsev has declared on several occasions that the North has no nuclear weapons, argued that the US has provoked North Korea and suggested Russia could take over the construction of nuclear power reactors promised under the Agreed Framework. US estimates suggest North Korea may already have one or two nuclear weapons and could produce five or six more within six months.

Mr Rumyantsev suggested that having Russia construct the nuclear reactors might stabilise the situation. If construction of nuclear reactors resumes in North Korea, Russia clearly hopes to be involved.

Russia's policy towards North Korea will continue to emphasise the importance of a peaceful resolution of the crisis and the importance of a nuclear-free peninsula. Although it is promoting direct US-North Korean talks, Russia will try to maintain its role as a mediator, even if it does not use that term. Russia will try to persuade the regime in Pyongyang to reach an agreement, but is unlikely to openly use its limited leverage, which it believes would be counter-productive.

Instead, Russia will push the US to tone down its rhetoric and offer North Korea diplomatic cover for backing away from its present position. If America offers assurances it will not push for UN sanctions, Russia may take up Mr Rogozin's call for a UN role in guaranteeing North Korean security, a variant on the current solution Russia is promoting.