James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
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Special Report: Manual for Producing Chemical Weapon to Be Used in New York Subway Plot Available on Al-Qaeda Websites Since Late 2005

By Sammy Salama

An analysis for the WMD Insights.
© WMD Insights. All rights reserved.

As first reported in the February 2006 issue of WMD Insights, a manual for the production of al-Mubtakkar, a crude hydrogen cyanide dispersal device, has been reproduced on numerous al-Qaeda websites since late 2005. It now appears to be nearly identical to the device intended for use in the aborted 2003 plot to attack the New York City subway system with chemical weapons (CW). Details of the subway plot were publicly disclosed over the weekend of June 17-18 in excerpts of Ron Suskind's forthcoming book, The One Percent Doctrine, published on Time Magazine's website.

Suskind details the discovery and potential of an al-Mubtakkar hydrogen cyanide dispersal device in sobering detail. He writes:

"[A joint Saudi-US counterterrorist unit] found it [in a jihadist apartment in Saudi Arabia]: plans for construction of a device called a mubtakkar. It is a fearful thing, and quite real....a delivery system for a widely available combination of chemicals--sodium cyanide, which is used as rat poison and metal cleanser, and hydrogen, which is everywhere. The combination of the two creates hydrogen cyanide, a colorless, highly volatile liquid that is soluble and stable in water. It has a faint odor, like peach kernels or bitter almonds. When it is turned into gas and inhaled, it is lethal. For years, figuring out how to deliver this combination of chemicals as a gas has been something of a holy grail for terrorists....Mubtakkar means "invention" in Arabic, "the initiative" in Farsi. The device is a bit of both. It's a canister with two interior containers: sodium cyanide is in one; a hydrogen product, like hydrochloric acid, in the other; and a fuse breaks the seal between them. The fuse can be activated remotely--as bombs are triggered by cell phones--breaking the seal, creating the gas, which is then released. Hydrogen cyanide gas is a blood agent, which means it poisons cells by preventing them from being able to utilize oxygen carried in the blood. [1]

According to the book, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's second-in-command, decided to call off the attack 45 days prior to its planned execution in the spring of 2003 for reasons that remain unclear. The book also claims the whereabouts of the al-Qaeda cell that traveled from North Africa to New York in fall 2002 to carry out the attack are currently unknown. [2] Furthermore, it is not clear if this alleged al-Qaeda cell actually acquired the precursor materials to construct one or more al-Mubtakkar devices.

The threat of such attacks remains, however. Active monitoring of al-Qaeda websites by WMD Insights staff uncovered a manual for the construction and deployment of a hydrogen cyanide dispersal device nearly identical to al-Mubtakkar. Entitled Al-Mubtakkar al-Farid: Li Irsaal al-Safah al-Athiri Ila al-Kafir al-`Anid [The Unique Invention: To Deliver the Gaseous Killer to the Stubborn Infidel], the manual provides specific instruction for the production and dispersal of hydrogen cyanide by combining specific quantities of hydrochloric acid with potassium cyanide in a crude device, consisting of four glass bottles in a metal container. [3] In this, it differs from the reported al-Mubtakkar device revealed in Ron Suskind's book only in the number of chemical-filled glass containers it uses and the substitution of potassium cyanide for sodium cyanide (which would work equally well for the purpose of producing lethal hydrogen cyanide).

Although it is unclear when it was first posted on the Internet, this manual was available on the operational al-Qaeda jihadi websites al-Firdaws and al-Farouq from October 2005 to early 2006, when the sites were closed. Since then, it has been disseminated to other websites: most operational al-Qaeda manuals are reposted on numerous pages to maximize their exposure among the jihadi community. Indeed, WMD Insights staff recently found the manual for the production of al-Mubtakkar on the pro al-Qaeda website al-Nusra, under the heading: "Al-Tasne`e al-Kimawi Yujad Bihi Kaifiyah Sina`at Qunbala Sahlah Jiddan Wabi Suwar [Chemical manufacturing contains instructions and pictures on how to assemble an easy bomb]."

This could potentially mean that proficiency in al-Mubtakkar assembly and construction is not limited to the al-Qaeda cell in the United States and a small number of operatives overseas (many of whom were killed by Saudi security forces during a stand-off) as were discussed in The One Percent Doctrine. Instead, since 2005, know-how for the assembly of al-Mubtakkar has likely proliferated extensively.

The exact number of readers of this terrorist manual for the production of al-Mubtakkar is difficult to ascertain. It has been reported, however, that the "Nuclear Preparation Encyclopedia," a crude nuclear weapon manual, which was also posted on al-Firdaws and al-Farouq jihadi websites in October 2005, attracted more than 57,000 hits following its posting. [4] Thus, it is likely that thousands of jihadis and al-Qaeda sympathizers worldwide also accessed the al-Mubtakkar manual online.

The manual posted on the sites describes al-Mubtakkar as "the spirit of the resistance...the result of many months and years of planning and preparation." It adds, "Within these pages is the great victory...what we wish is that it becomes the deciding factor in the victory of the believers." [6] The eight-page manual in Arabic has 34 diagrams that carefully illustrate the materials and components used in the device and also instruct the would-be jihadi on precise assembly and precautionary steps to enhance al-Mubtakkar's potency. [7]

The manual consists of six short chapters detailing the following:
1. Introduction
Includes a religious introduction and states, "Lethal gasses are among the most effective, most frightening, most affordable, and most reliable weapons."

2. "The fruit of al-Mubtakkar"
Details the advantages of this device.

3. Possible targets
Details locations and facilities where al-Mubtakkar can be used.

4. Warnings and words of caution

5. Ingredients
Details a list of the specific necessary ingredients and quantities (including hydrochloric acid and potassium cyanide).

6. Preparation method
Provides specific details and diagrams on how to assemble al-Mubtakkar devices.

7. Preparation method of the detonator
Provides specific details on the necessary ingredients and assembly of the detonator.

In its discussion of potential targets, the "al-Mubtakkar al-Farid" manual specifically suggests that the weapon be targeted against: [8]

As evident in previous al-Qaeda atrocities, the targets outlined as fair game in this manual reveal that the al-Qaeda network continues to plan the targeting of innocent civilians. The manual states, "The most effective way to disperse this gas is in closed quarters by using the central air conditioning and ventilation systems within a building or by using multiple devices if available." [9] It adds, "When placing these devices inside buildings it should specifically be placed by the entrances and the emergency exits." Also, according to the manual, "It is possible to use al-Mubtakkar in open spaces if there is enough material." The manual specifically discourages the would-be jihadi from deploying al-Mubtakkar in airports because "air travelers pass through numerous security checkpoints in the airports, and chemical precursors are easily detected by trained dogs." [10]

The reported 2003 plot to use al-Mubtakkar in the New York City subway is in line with al-Qaeda's larger calculus for target selection, which emphasizes the destruction of U.S. economic targets. [11] The ultimate goal is to cause the highest scale of economic damage in order to force the United States to spend excessive resources on guarding and protecting vulnerable sites countrywide, eventually crippling the U.S. economy - seen by al-Qaeda as the source of American military power and hegemony. A successful attack against the New York City subways would force the U.S. government to spend substantial funds to guard all transportation facilities within the country, including subways, trains, and buses, impacting the U.S. economy, which is al-Qaeda's stated objective.

Al-Mubtakkar can also be used as a weapon of mass disruption. The closed spaces of subway cars would dramatically enhance the effectiveness of the hydrogen cyanide dispersal device, and a successful subway attack would cause widespread panic, shut down the system for many days, overload health care facilities, and leave a legacy of fear and anxiety among the American public.

The deadly attacks against Spanish commuter trains in Madrid in 2004 (190 dead) and English subways in London in 2005 (55 dead) are powerful precedents for more jihadi strikes against subway or train systems. [12] Nonetheless, it is important not to exaggerate the potential potency of al-Mubtakkar device. In theory, hydrogen cyanide is a very lethal CW agent; however, in reality it is doubtful that deploying such a crude device would produce the same scale of fatalities as the September 11 attacks. A useful point of reference is Aum Shinrikyo's CW attack on the Tokyo subway in March of 1995. In that terrorist attack, Aum members disseminated the much more deadly Sarin chemical nerve agent by puncturing small bags containing the agent with sharpened umbrellas. Despite that fact that Aum Shinrikyo terrorists attacked five subway cars filled with passengers during the morning rush hour, this attack resulted in only 12 deaths, although 1000 persons were injured. [13] The actual mass killing potential of al-Mubtakkar is uncertain and would be dependent on many variables specific to the scale and efficiency of the particular attack. Some specialists believe its dangers have been greatly overstated. [14]

The proliferation of al-Mubtakkar production manuals on various jihadi websites since late 2005 is a worrisome development. Now that the previous plans involving the use of al-Mubtakkar by top Al-Qaeda officials are publicly known, it is possible that junior jihadis, even those unaffiliated with Al-Qaeda but sympathetic to its cause, will adapt al-Mubtakkar for their own purposes, perhaps carrying out a strike with it to impress al-Qaeda's leadership or curry its favor. This likelihood is increased by the ease of the device's assembly and the availability of its components and precursor chemicals. The abandoned al-Qaeda plot in spring of 2003 is most likely not the end of the threat posed by al-Mubtakkar.

Sources and Notes:

[1] Ron Suskind, "The Untold Story of al-Qaeda's Plot to Attack the Subways," TIME, June 19, 2006, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/printout/0,8816,1205478,00.html. [View Article]
[2] Ibid.
[3] "Al-Mubtakkar al-Farid: Li Irsaal al-Safah al-Athiri Ila al-Kafir al-`Anid – The Unique Invention: To Deliver the Atheric Killer to the Stubborn Infidel," al-Firdaws Jihadi Website, October 2006. WMD Insights first reported on the device, before its connection to the New York City subway plot and the interest of top al-Qaeda leaders in using such devices was publicly known. See "Moroccan Authorities Foil Terrorist Cell Pursuing CW," WMD Insights, February 2006, http://www.wmdinsights.com/I2/AF1_Moroccon.htm. [View Article]
[4] Uzi Mahnaimi and Tom Walker, "al-Qaeda Woos Recruits with Nuclear Bomb Website," Sunday Times, November 6, 2005, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1859222,00.html. [View Article]
[5] "Al-Mubtakkar al-Farid: Li Irsaal al-Safah al-Athiri Ila al-Kafir al-`Anid – The Unique Invention: To Deliver the Gaseous Killer to the Stubborn Infidel," al-Firdaws Jihadi Website, October 2005.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Ibid.
[9] Ibid.
[10] Ibid.
[11] See Akhu Man Ta`a Allah, "Hal Baqa Ma Uqal `An 11 September – Is There Anything Left to Say About September 11," Sawt al-Jihad (Voice of Jihad), Volume 26, p. 35-42, September 2004. See also Abu Mus`ab al-Najadi, "Ma`arakat al-Qaeda Ma`araka Iqtisadiya La `Askariya – al-Qaeda's Battle is Economic not Military," October 3, 2005. The following excerpts from "Hal Baqa Ma Uqal `An 11 September – Is There Anything Left to Say About September 11," in Sawt al-Jihad (Voice of Jihad), an official publication of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia, articulates the rational behind al-Qaeda's target selection:

"Since September 11th America has been spending billions of dollars to protect its infrastructure and interests around the world... The attacker determines the timing of the strike. He will carry a concentrated strike one time at a weak point and then sit in ambush again. So the enemy will look for a gap and close it, this is not necessarily where he was hit but all other similar targets. So striking the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania means protecting every American embassy in the world. Striking the [U.S.S] Cole at sea means protecting all American assets in the seas. Diversifying targets means protecting all American things in every land that may have terrorists!!

If the enemy used his economy to rule the world and hire collaborators, then we need to strike this economy with harsh attacks to bring it down on the heads of its owners. If the enemy has built his economy on the basis of open markets and free trade by getting the monies of investors, then we have to prove to these investors that the enemy's land is not safe for them, that his economy is not capable of guarding their monies, so they would abandon him to suffer alone the fall of his economy.

This is about Jihad against the crusader enemy, so what about the September 11th operation? Hijacking planes is a well known tactic, which was used by various fighters and freedom fighters, so what's new about this operation? People used to hijack planes and consider them a target, but those who are willing to put in the extra effort turned these planes into a method only, a projectile shot in the heart of the enemy ...The enemy used to protect his external interests and spend exuberant [sic] sums for this protection, so he was surprised when he was struck inside his borders. The enemy used to protect a thousand interests outside his county, now he has to protect a million interests inside his country that need continuing protection!! The attack on the Trade Center forced America since that day to spend billions to protect the huge economic infrastructure that runs the American economy. Using planes in this attack has forced America to spend billions to protect the planes and airports in all possible ways. This protection is not limited to the hundreds of American airports but also to every airport in the world. Anyone related to the aviation field is spending excessive amounts to guard air travel; the matter has reached protecting the skies...This is how America was transformed after one strike, protecting all that can be struck, and they guard all that can be used to strike with!"