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Outside Publications by CNS StaffIran Tests Missiles for Domestic and Foreign Audiences; Origins of One Advanced System Remain MurkyBy Sammy Salama, Nikolai Sokov, and Gina Cabrera-Farraj An analysis for the WMD Insights.
The Iranian war games, code-named "the Great Prophet," took place off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf. The games began with the firing of a Shahab-2 surface-to-surface ballistic missile, which Iranian Rear-Admiral Morteza Saffari stated was a message of "peace and friendship" for the states located on or around the Persian Gulf. [2] The mobile system, first acquired in the early 1990s, is said by outside analysts to be a copy of the North Korean "SCUD-C" and built with production equipment purchased from North Korea. [3] It is thought to have a range-payload capability permitting it to carry a 700 kg payload to a distance of 500 kilometers -- sufficient to carry a nuclear warhead to key targets throughout the Persian Gulf region. Additional practice firings of three different missiles began soon after the Shahab-2 launch. Iran first demonstrated the Fajr-3, which the Iranians assert is undetectable by radar. The Fajr ("Dawn") series of rockets are mobile-launched, unguided, solid-fuel artillery rockets, which are designed and produced by Iran, possibly with the help of Russia and China. Developed during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, this series also resembles North Korean rockets of similar size. [4] It is believed that in 2001, Iran supplied Fajr-5 rockets to Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. [5] The Fajr-3 is believed to have a range of 43 km and payload of 90 kg, while the Fajr-5 has an extended range of 90 km and an increased payload of 109 kg. [6] The second missile test involved a Kowsar anti-ship missile (sometimes referred to as the Kosar), a cruise missile Iran developed that can be launched from air, ship, or land. [7] Range and payload information is currently unknown. According to the Iranians, the Kowsar is remote-controlled and possesses searching systems that cannot be scrambled. [8] It was first tested in the Straits of Hormuz. The choice of test site is thought to have been intended as a warning to the United States that in a future confrontation, Iran could halt the traffic of oil tankers through this chokepoint. [9] The third system tested was the Hoot ("Whale"), an underwater missile, or a high-performance torpedo, purportedly manufactured by Iran. Iranian sources have boasted that it is the worlds fastest underwater missile, traveling at a speed of 100 meters per second. The Deputy Commander of the Revolutionary Guard stated that: "After testing this missile, the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of two countries that possess such a technology in the marine military industries." [10] The Revolutionary Guard Commander also emphasized that "the vessels which launch the missile cannot be picked up or identified by radars," making it particularly difficult for warships or submarines to escape attack. [11] Iranian officials also commented that "the missile has the ability of destroying any vessel on the surface of the water or at any depth underwater" and warned the West against "playing with fire." [12] Although Iranian spokesmen have stated that these missiles were manufactured domestically, outside analysts suggest that they are copies of older Russian models and that Iran received technological assistance for these missiles from Russia, North Korea, and/or China. [13] Indeed, the Iranian Hoot may be a copy of the Russian-produced VA-111 (or BA-111) Shkval missile, which is capable of traveling three to four times as fast as a standard torpedo. It can reach a speed of 359 kph and has a payload of 210 kg and a range of 7 km. [14] Russia allegedly deployed these missiles in the 1990s to counter U.S. submarines and torpedoes. (This underwater missile can be fired at an enemy torpedo, which forces the incoming torpedo to evade and snap its guidance wires.) The Shkval uses an auto-pilot system to guide it rather than a homing head. Supposedly, there are no known countermeasures against the system. It is reported that the missile originally carried a nuclear warhead, but later an improved model with a conventional payload was developed. [15] The Shkval-E is the conventionally-armed version that was designed for export, forty of which were allegedly sold to China in the 1990s. [16] Considering the amount of coverage these tests received in Iran and abroad, the most likely objective of these exercises was to provide a show of force to reassure the Iranian public, and serve as a warning to the United States that Iran has the capability to respond against U.S. regional allies, Persian Gulf shipping, and U.S. maritime forces, if it is attacked or subjected to a naval blockade as the result of the continuing confrontation with the West over the future of its nuclear program. At the same time, however, in recent weeks Iran appears to have been seeking to enter into direct talks with the United States to discuss its nuclear program and other matters of contention. [17] The missile exercises may also be intended as a signal to the Iranian populace that should Tehran decide to enter into negotiations on the nuclear issue, it will be doing so from a position of strength and not from fear of an American attack. Reaction in Region Reactions by other Persian Gulf states to Irans missile tests have been mixed. Arab officials generally downplayed them, while some Arab media outlets (both state-controlled and independent) displayed greater alarm. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal minimized the Iranian exercises and showed apparent indifference to the missile tests. In a news conference that followed the Iranian missile firings, Prince Saud stated: "It is not the first time they have had maneuvers. We do not believe that they are a threat to any of their neighbors." [18] One the other hand, some Arab commentaries have expressed "heightened Arab fears" from Tehrans perceived hostility. [19] One commentator explained that the missile tests showed the aggressive inclinations of the current Iranian regime. He also stated that while Iran may have called the firing of the Shahab-2 ballistic missile off the coast of the Persian Gulf a sign of "peace and friendship," Arab states in the region saw it rather differently. [20] A second, Saudi commentary reported that the missile exercises heightened fears that Iran may not only be on the way to creating a nuclear weapon, but also that it has the systems necessary to deliver such a weapon. The author argued that this military escalation is moving the region towards greater instability. [21] Origin of Hoot Raises Questions Not unexpectedly, the test of a torpedo that was suspiciously similar to the Russian Shkval attracted attention in Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov tried to deflect speculation that the Iranian missile had a Russian pedigree: "Many countries have sold arms to Iran, including Western countries," he said, implying that Russia was not the source of the technology utilized by Iran, but without directly denying that it was. [22] Russian experts agreed that the torpedo advertised by Iran could not have been indigenously produced. "Neither China, nor Iran could develop and produce a torpedo with features the Iranian military officials claim as their own," said one of the designers of the Shkval, Yuri Fadeev, who now works at the State Science and Production Corporation "Region." But Russian experts, although admitting the technology could be of Russian origin, denied that it came directly from Russia. Director of the Central Research Institute "Gidropribor," Stanislav Proshkin, speculated that the technology for the Shkval could have ended up in the hands of Iranians in the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union; during the Soviet period the Shkval was manufactured in Kazakhstan, with the front section of the system produced in Kyrgyzstan. It is possible, Proshkin said, that during the chaotic period of the early 1990s documentation for the Shkval could have been sold to China - perhaps from Kyrgyzstan, he said - and then the Chinese could have shared it with Iran. [23] The allegation of possible Kyrgystani involvement was immediately denied by Kyrgyz authorities. The press secretary of the Ministry of Defense explained that the Kyrgyz military lacked access to the relevant enterprises, which were continuing to work for the Russian defense industry and were effectively controlled by Russia. "The Ministry of Defense of Kyrgyzstan only has its representatives at these enterprises and in any event does not have direct access to any documentation or products," he declared. Moreover, he noted, land-locked Kyrgyzstan never needed naval weapons for its defense and has never acquired any. [24] Askar Daminov, chief engineer of the "Dastana" company, which continues to produce components for Russian arms manufacturers, explained that his plant never had full documentation for the Shkval, which was produced in Almaty, Kazakhstan. If there are any assembled Shkval missiles in Kyrgystan, he added, the only place they might be found is at a testing range at Karakol, on Lake Issyk-Kul, which is controlled by Russia. [25] If, indeed, the Hoot is based on the Shkval, it will be important to understand how the technology arrived in Iran and how such transfers of high-technology arms to states of proliferation concern might be prevented in the future. Sources:
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