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Iran's Announcement of a Space Rocket Test: Fact or Fiction?

Khalid Hilal - Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and Jack Boureston - FirstWatch International

Copyright © WMD Insights. All rights reserved

April 2007.

On February 25, 2007, Iran’s official TV network announced that Iran successfully tested its first

space rocket, although, uncharacteristically, the network did not accompany its coverage with any footage showing the actual launch. [1] Press reports quoted Ali Akbar Golrou, deputy head of Iran’s Aerospace Research Center, as stating that the rocket reached an altitude of 150 kilometers (93 miles), 50 kilometers beyond the threshold of space, but did not stay in orbit. [2] According to the Fars news agency, Golrou described the rocket as a “sounding rocket,” one carrying instruments for scientific research, and said it returned to earth using a parachute. The private, Iran-based Shia News Agency quoted Mohssen Bahrami, Director of the Aerospace Research Center, as saying that the rocket, dubbed “Kawsh,” carried “research equipment made by the ministries of defense and science.” [3] He added that “all tests [relevant to the launch] were undertaken in Iran’s industrial units in accordance with international standards and that experts from the Space Research Center and the Engineering Center at the Ministry of Agriculture assembled them.” [4]

Iran’s announcement of the sounding rocket launch, which would be a step toward future orbiting space satellites and could signal a parallel advance in Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, came a day before the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany were to meet in London to consider the imposition of additional sanctions on Iran for its continued non-compliance with Resolution 1737. [5] The resolution, adopted on December 23, 2006, imposed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs because of Tehran’s refusal to halt sensitive aspects of its nuclear activities. [6] The Iranian launch announcement thus appeared to represent an act of defiance against the Security Council and, indeed, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammed Najjar was quoted on the day of the announcement as stating that “enemy sanctions did not prevent Iran from developing its aerospace and electronics industry.” [7] Subsequently, Najjar expanded the point, declaring that the fact that Iran was able to acquire space technology was “an element of leverage in the political equation.” [8]

The Iranian announcement drew immediate comment internationally because capabilities developed for national space programs can be adapted for use in ballistic missiles, and demonstrations of prowess in the former area can indicate a nation’s potential to develop missiles with increased capability. On February 26, Qatar-based Al Jazeera TV quoted Ephram Kam, an Israeli expert at the Center for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, as saying that the success of Iran’s test highlighted its capacity to develop long-range missiles capable of reaching Europe. Alexei Arbatov, head of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ International Security Center, echoed this point forcefully in an interview on Russian television:

All ballistic experts immediately calculated that if the rocket had been launched against a target on the ground, it would be able to reach that target within a distance of up to 4,000 km. This would make it a medium-range missile. If launched from Iran, a missile with a range of 4,000 km could reach Germany, France, the UK and Italy. [9]

Reflecting the potential political significance of the announcement, the Qatari daily Arraya wrote on February 26 that Iran’s announcement of a space launch vehicle test constituted a new step toward Iran imposing itself as a regional power. [13] The announced test was also criticized as a misguided squandering of Iranian wealth. On February 25, the online news service Al Jeeran, affiliated with the Iraqi-Kuwaiti Association, wrote that spending the nation’s assets on “armament programs in order to become a member of an [elite] club is the utmost ignorance;” it questioned “how the poor and hungry citizens would benefit from watching these rockets go into space.” [14]

Shannon Kile, a senior nonproliferation expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, was less alarmed by the Iranian announcement. In an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, he stated that the rocket was “basically a sounding rocket…half-a-century-old technology.” [15] The type of rocket that Iran used, he continued, “appears to have been a single-stage, liquid-fuel rocket that probably is a derivation of one of their simpler, medium-range ballistic missiles.” [16] He went on to say that the firing of the sounding rocket did not indicate that Iran had made a major technological advance.

Did They or Didn’t They?

Almost immediately after the Iranian announcement, however, questions began to surface as to whether the sounding rocket launch had actually occurred. Al Jeeran wrote on February 25 that “despite the fact that [the test] is a major milestone for missile technology development in Iran, it was aired only once on Iran’s main news TV channel and was not reported by any other Iranian media.” [17] In the same vein, the Al Moheet online news service wrote on February 26 that the Russian news agency Novosti quoted a source in the Russian Ministry of Defense as saying that the Russian radar station in Gabala, Azerbaijan, did not detect any signal of a space rocket launch from Iranian territory and that the Russian space surveillance system did not detect any new object in space. The same source went on to add that “Tehran’s lie has specific international political objectives.” [18]

U.S. intelligence sources also strongly implied that there had been no Iranian launch, but stopped short of stating that the event was a fabrication. In an interview with Agence France Presse, an unnamed U.S. defense official, speaking of Iran’s claimed space launch, declared, “We have no indication that that’s true…. Nothing we’ve come up with would indicate that’s happened.” In a somewhat garbled further comment, indicating the upshot of U.S. intelligence assessments, he concluded, “The intelligence assessments point to [the conclusion] that the event didn’t happen.” [19]

Dr. Abdeladeem Mahmood Hanafi, an expert in strategic studies and director of the Cairo-based Kinana Center for Studies and Research, saw the action as an indication of disarray among Iranian leadership. He wrote that the pretense of conducting a successful sounding rocket test was a strong sign that “the leadership in Tehran has lost its usual calm and cunning spirit…. as a result of continuing reports of [American and/or Israeli] attack plans.” [20] He added, “The leadership was questioning the country’s defense capabilities… and that the inflammatory declarations reflected an intense fear.” [21]

Conclusion

The conflicting information about whether the test took place leaves the matter very much up in the air. While Iranian officials might well have had political motives for announcing a dramatic rocket launch as a means of demonstrating resolve in the face of UN pressure, it is difficult to imagine that they would have simply fabricated the event and assumed this would not be discovered. On the other hand, senior Iranian figures have made exaggerated claims in the past for political show, such as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s boast the day after UN Security Council Resolution 1737 was adopted that Iran would have 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges operating by March 2007. [22] At the same time, it must be noted that the United States and Russia, as Security Council members seeking to constrain Iran, have motives of their own for minimizing international attention to a possible Iranian space launch and for tacitly allowing their somewhat imprecise comments that they “failed to observe” the launch to be interpreted a conclusion that it did not, in fact, occur.

SOURCES AND NOTES

[1] Stuart Williams, “Iran Says [It] Fires First Rocket Into Space,” AFP, February 25, 2007, [http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070225/ts_afp/iranmilitaryspace]; “Iran Tanjah Biitalq Awwal Sarookh Stitla3 Fadaii” [Iran Successfully Launched the First Space Exploration Rocket], Asharqalawsat, February 26, 2007.

[2] Williams, “Iran Says [It] Fires First Rocket Into Space,” see source in [1]; “Iran Tanjah Biitalq Awwal Sarookh Stitla3 Fadaii” [Iran Successfully Launched the First Space Exploration Rocket], see source in [1].

[3] “Iran Tujri Tajriba Najiha Li Itlaq Sarookh Ila Lfdaa” [Iran Successfully Tests a Space Rocket], Shia News Agency, February 25, 2007.

[4] Ibid.

[5] For the text of UN Security Council Resolution 1737, see [http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/681/42/PDF/N0668142.pdf?OpenElement].

[6] Ibid.

[7] “Iran Taghzoo Alfadaa Biitlaq Awwal Sarookh Mahalli Asson3” [Iran Conquers Space with a Locally-made Rocket], Middle East Newsline, February 25, 2007.

[8] Fahs, Hassan, “Halqa Jadida Min Sti3rad Alquwa fi al Mintaqa….Sarookh Irani ila alfadaa al Khariji” [A New Episode in Force Display in the Region… An Iranian Missile in Outer Space], Al Hayat, February 27, 2007.

[9] “Iran Has Capability To Make Medium-Range Missiles – Russian Expert,” Vesti TV, February 26, 2007, OSC document CEP20070301950265.

[10] Ibid.

[11] Ibid.

[12] Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, “Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States,” Statement for the Record before the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 17, 2005, http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2005/March/Jacoby%2003-17-05.pdf. [View Article]

[13] “Iran Atlaqat Awwal Sarookh Lilfada” [Iran Launched Its First Space Rocket], Arraya, February 26, 2006.

[14] “Ba3da Itlaq Pakistan Lisarookhiha, Iran Aydan Atlaqat Sarookhaha Lilfada” [After Pakistan Launched its Missile, Iran Also Launched its Space Missile], Al Jeeran, February 25, 2007. 

[15] Charles Recknagel, “Iran: Rocket Launch Another Show Of Prowess,” Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty, February 28, 2007, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/02/697D9B52-7021-4A62-86F6-F320D4B6B0F9.html.

[View Article]

[16] Ibid.

[17] “Ba3da Itlaq Pakistan Lisarookhiha, Iran Aydan Atlaqat Sarookhaha Lilfada” [After Pakistan Launched its Missile, Iran Also Launched its Space Missile], see source in [14].

[18] “Sarookh Iran Alakheer… Kadba Fadaiyya” [The Latest Iranian Missile… A Space Lie], Al Moheet, February 26, 2007.

[19] “U.S. Doubts Iranian Space Launch Claim,” Agence France Presse, February 26, 2007, [http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070226/pl_afp/usiranmilitaryspace_070226194739].

[20] Abdeladeem Mahmood Hanafi, “Okdobat Iran alFadaiyya” [Iran’s Space Lie], Elaph, February 26, 2007.

[21] Ibid.

[22] “Iran to Install 3,000 Centrifuges at Natanz,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, December 24, 2006, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/12/86bf243e-7422-462b-8bc9-47c3f040d502.html. [View Article]