James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Combating the spread of weapons of mass destruction with training & analysis

RUSSIAN STRATEGIC AVIATION BEGINS REGULAR LONG-RANGE FLIGHTS: PUTIN ANNOUNCES "ENHANCED AIR PATROLS"

Copyright © WMD Insights. All rights reserved.

October 2007 Issue

By Nikolai Sokov

On August 17, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian heavy bombers were resuming regular air patrols outside Russian territory: "I have decided that flights of Russian strategic aircraft on a permanent basis should be resumed and today, on August 17, at 00:00, 14 strategic bombers, support aircraft, and refueling aircraft from seven bases took off. A combat patrol with participation of 20 aircraft has begun." [1] The mission, said Putin, would last for 20 hours and would be performed in coordination with the Navy. Patrols were to cover areas of "active shipping and of Russia's vital economic interests." [2] Putin made this statement at the Chebarkul (Chelyabinsk oblast) training range on the last day of large-scale joint Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) military maneuvers, a setting that underscored Russia's increased focus on military preparedness.

Putin's announcement appeared to reverse a practice that emerged at the end of the Cold War, when the United States and Russia, by parallel unilateral decisions, stopped heavy bomber combat patrols. That informal arrangement helped to improve the political and security relationship between the two countries. Nonetheless, as Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) analyst Aleksandr Pikaev noted, Putin's decision "did not violate any international agreements [because] Russia did not sign any agreements with the United States [on this issue]." [3] Still, the resumption of regular patrols of Russian heavy bombers far from Russian territory could signify an important change of policy.

The majority of Russian media lauded Putin's statement as a further sign that Russia is reasserting itself after 15 years of internal crisis. Not surprisingly, praise was loudest from the Russian Air Force. The former Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force (1991-98) Petr Deynekin declared: "We have always demonstrated our capabilities to those who provoke us." During the Cold War, he explained, "Russian long-range aviation performed similar missions on a regular basis, but the Americans have just forgotten that we can do this." [4]

Amid the chorus of endorsements a few criticisms were also heard. Military analyst Vladimir Yevseev pointed out that Putin's decision could have negative consequences as it might encourage the United States to resume strategic patrols of its own. [5] An editorial in Nezavisimore Voennoe Obozrenie, an influential weekly that covers issues of defense policy, criticized the government for diverting still scarce funds from solving the social problems of servicemen in order to make a political statement. [6]

Washington's reaction to Putin's announcement was deliberately low-key, however. According to State Department spokesman Sean McCormack, the United States was not "in the kind of posture we were with what used to be the Soviet Union. It's a different era. If Russia feels as though they want to take some of these old aircraft out of mothballs and get them flying again, that's their decision." [7]

Patrols or Training?
Close scrutiny suggests that statements about permanent patrols of Russian heavy bombers are an overstatement and are probably motivated by a desire to promote the image of Russia's growing power -- the image that Putin's government has been keen to nurture for political reasons. Although Putin's statement was interpreted by some Russian commentators as an indication that Russian strategic aircraft would maintain a permanent presence in the air, just as the United States did during the Cold War, the change of policy is much more modest. In reality, it amounts to enhanced training.

So far "air patrols" have been flown approximately every two weeks and have lasted less than 24 hours. It is unclear how long the Russian Air Force will be able to sustain this rate of training, given the limited number of heavy bombers it possesses and the high cost of fuel. (In the past, the cost of fuel and of aircraft maintenance had been the primary obstacle to regular training of heavy bomber crews).

Regular flights at long distances actually began several weeks before Putin's statement. On July 17 and 19, 2007, Tu-95 heavy bombers twice approached Great Britain's airspace during "planned flights over international waters," according to assistant to Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force, Col. Aleksandr Drobyshevski. On both occasions, according to the Russian media, the British Royal Air Force (RAF) sent aircraft to intercept the Russian warplanes. Simultaneously, on July 19, two Tu-160s flew toward Greenland. [8] Overall, during two days of exercises, according to Drobyshevski, Tu-95s, Tu-160s, and Il-78 in-air refueling aircraft performed 15 flights. Twenty percent of the crews were young pilots flying these types of missions for the first time; each aircraft spent at least nine hours in the air. The longest missions were performed by Tu-95s (13 hours) and Tu-160s (11 hours). The aircraft flew toward the northwest (Norway, Great Britain, Greenland), the north (toward the North Pole), to the Far East, and also within Russia (from the Engels airbase on the Volga to Lake Baikal). [9] In late August, Drobyshevski confirmed that enhanced air patrols had been going on for "a month and a half." [10]

According to Russian sources, even at the time of the first round of long-range training flights, the Norwegian military classified the Russian heavy bomber missions as "unusually lengthy" and "reaching farther south" than usual. [11] A similar assessment was given three weeks later by U.S. Air Force General Gene Renuart, who commented that "over the last probably three months or so the Russians have been flying their bomber force maybe a little bit more than we've seen in the past; certainly they're ranging farther than they have in the past." [12]

On August 8-9, the Russian Air Force conducted another large-scale exercise; approximately 30 bombers (four Tu-95, 12 Tu-160, 14 Tu-22M3, and four refueling Il-78) flew toward the North Pole, the Atlantic, and the Pacific Oceans, including toward Guam, home of a major U.S. military base. [13]

The exercises, which Putin announced on August 17, were apparently the third in a series. Thus, his speech at the Chebarkul training center did not inaugurate a new policy -- although it was probably meant to sound as if it did -- but rather made public a policy that had been in effect for more than a month. The time and place for that announcement were deliberately chosen to maximize the political effect and were probably intended as much for Russia's SCO allies as for the West. (See related story "Bishkek Summit of Shanghai Treaty Organization Attacks U.S. BMD Plans, Defends Iran's Nuclear Program, and Proposes WMD Nonproliferation Measures," in this issue of WMD Insights.)

The next round of patrols took place two weeks later, on September 5-6, 2007. The new series of flights took Russian heavy bombers "around the corner" to the northern Atlantic, to the Sea of Japan, and beyond the North Pole. [14] On September 14, it was announced that two Tu-160s were sent to patrol the Arctic Ocean for 15 hours. [15]

The missions flown since mid-July reveal a rather stable pattern; they all have been training flights that lasted less than 24 hours and usually involved 10 or more aircraft simultaneously flying in different directions. Russia has not attempted to maintain a permanent presence in the air, suggesting that there was no intention to transition to a "war posture."

The choice of patrol areas, however, suggests that the Russian Air Force continues to train for combat missions even though Putin emphasized in his August 17 statement that patrols would be conducted in the areas of Russian economic interests and active shipping, rather than in regions required for "deterrence of a missile-nuclear attack on Russia." [16] In fact, the list of areas unveiled since July closely correlates with missions flown by heavy bombers during almost every large-scale exercise since 1999. During these exercises heavy bombers apparently simulated limited strikes (against targets in the United States, NATO, other U.S. bases, and naval targets) in response to attacks against Russia by the United States and its allies. Even the flight toward Guam in August 2007 was not particularly new; in 2003, Russian Tu-95s flew to the Indian Ocean to practice cruise missile launches against land-based targets (presumably the U.S. base at Diego Garcia). Training for these types of missions fits the "de-escalation" strategy set forth in Russia's 2000 Military Doctrine and subsequent documents. [17] The only difference is that previously these missions were flown only once or twice a year and only in the context of large-scale maneuvers that involved all or most branches of the armed forces, while now they are being undertaken more often and independently of other services.

The true nature of the new policy (training rather than permanent patrols) was admitted by Putin himself on August 18, the day after his declaration on the flights. In a clear attempt to explain and somewhat mitigate its impact, he remarked: "Our pilots are restless. We have aircraft, but they do not fly." He expressed the hope that "Russia's partners will understand this decision." [18] First Vice Premier and former Minister of Defense Sergey Ivanov, who is well known for tough, sometimes hawkish pronouncements, also hastened to declare that the new policy did not signify a return to Cold War practices: "They are not related to bloc thinking, confrontation, much less to a return to the Cold War." [19]

Similarly, Commander of Long-Range Aviation Major-General Pavel Androsov quickly clarified that Russian heavy bombers would be flying "air patrols" rather than "combat duty" missions. [20] He elaborated that during the last several months the frequency of flights had increased 2.5-3 times in order to enhance training of the crews, but that the nature of missions remained the same.

Seeking to allay fears and suppress what he saw as the "unhealthy sensationalism" of the media, retired Major-General Pavel Zolotarev, deputy director of the Institute of U.S. and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, wrote that the new policy was not close to the Cold War pattern, when Soviet and American heavy bombers, often with nuclear weapons, maintained an almost permanent presence in the air. This is simply enhanced training, he said, an opportunity for heavy bomber crews to "restore qualifications that had been lost in previous years." [21] He also praised the "calm and pragmatic" reaction to enhanced training in the United States, which, he claimed, demonstrates that "experts understand that the words of the Russian President about combat patrols mean something other than what they meant during the Cold War." In the future, funding permitting, the same pattern will be expanded to other elements of the Air Force, he added.

Do They Carry Nuclear Weapons?
Immediately following Putin's announcement, a serious, but short-lived controversy developed regarding whether Russian heavy bombers would be flying with nuclear weapons on board. The controversy was started -- apparently unintentionally -- by the Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force, Aleksandr Zelin, at a press conference on August 20. The media reported that he openly admitted that aircraft "would be equipped with nuclear missiles." [22] In reality, he never said that. The exact words of Zelin were that aircraft would be equipped "with regular weapons complement," which could mean a wide range of weapons (including conventional) or no weapons at all. [23] The previous Soviet Minister of Defense, Dmitry Yazov, clarified that even during the Soviet era, heavy bombers that flew long-range missions did not carry nuclear weapons on board, implying that the same practice applied to the Russian Air Force. [24]

Uncertainties with regard to the new developments were clarified a few days later by Androsov, who explained that during these "patrols", Russian heavy bombers do not carry weapons at all -- they only train for long-range flights with a full load (that is, simulators that have the same weight and dimensions as weapons). [25] Deputy Commander of the Long-Range Aviation Major-General Anatoly Zhikharev confirmed that statement, saying that all aircraft taking part in air patrols "were equipped with training missiles." [26]

Shadowing by NATO Aircraft Seen as a Positive Sign
A rather peculiar aspect of the new training policy is the considerable satisfaction that high-level Air Force officials seem to derive from the fact that Russian heavy bombers on long-range flights are shadowed and intercepted by U.S. and NATO aircraft. Androsov, in a number of statements regarding recent air patrols, emphasized encounters with U.S. and NATO aircraft.

Commenting on the flight toward Guam in early August, Androsov noted, with some pride, that U.S. fighters were sent to intercept Russian aircraft as they were flying toward Guam and that Russian and American pilots "exchanged smiles" [27] -- a clear reference to the practice typical of Cold War encounters between Soviet and American aircraft. This parallel suggests that representatives of the Russian Air Force regard such encounters as an important symbol of a return to the times when the Soviet military considered itself second to none and on equal footing with the U.S. military. Thus, the intercepts are considered a symbol of status rather than of hostile action.

According to U.S. sources, no attempted interception took place. A U.S. Pacific Command spokesperson in Honolulu revealed that Russian bombers came within 300 miles of U.S. ships and 100 miles of U.S. aircraft and thus there was no need to intercept them. According to Lieutenant Commander Chito Peppler, a Pentagon spokesperson, "U.S. forces were prepared to intercept the bombers, but they never came close enough ... to warrant an air-to-air intercept." [28]

Almost every Russian report about flights of heavy bombers, however, included mentions of shadowing and intercepts. For example, when talking about the August 17-18 maneuvers, Androsov remarked that 21 NATO fighters approached Russian aircraft and followed them for five hours. [29] Drobyshevski made a similar announcement with regard to the September 5-6 exercises; NATO aircraft, he said, "followed almost every Russian strategic bomber" and he specifically mentioned intercepts by Norwegian and British aircraft. [30] The incidents that received the most comments in Western media were the intercepts of Russian Tu-95MS heavy bombers near British airspace by RAF fighters, which occurred several times during the last two months. [31]

Russian Air Force representatives have not presented these encounters in hostile or confrontational tones. Instead, they have treated them as a routine part of the business of flying long-range patrols and an indication that the Russian Strategic Air Force has assumed its rightful place on the global scene.

Nikolai Sokov -- Monterey Institute James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

SOURCES AND NOTES
[1] "Putin Podnyal na Krylo Ameriku" [Putin Put American Air Force into Air], RIA-Novosti, August 17, 2007.
[2] "Rossiya Vozobnovlyaet Boevoe Dezhurstvo Strategicheskoi Aviatsii" [Russia Resumes Combat Duty of Strategic Aviation], RIA-Novosti, August 17, 2007.
[3] "Putin Podnyal na Krylo Ameriku" [Putin Put American Air Force into Air], see source in [1].
[4] Dmitri Litovkin, "Russkie Letyat" [Russians Are Flying], Izvestiya, August 20, 2007.
[5] "Putin Podnyal na Krylo Ameriku" [Putin Put American Air Force into Air], see source in [1].
[6] "A Pro Sluzhivykh Zabyli" [But They Forgot About Servicemen], Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, August 24, 2007.
[7] Anton Troianovski, "Russia Resumes Its Long-Range Air Patrols," Washington Post, August 18, 2007, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/17/AR2007081702265.html. [View Article]
[8] "Rossiya Nazvala Polety Bombardirovshchikov Tu-95 Planovymi" [Russia Calls Tu-95 Flights Regular], AVIA.Ru, July 18, 2007; "Britanskie Istrebiteli Snova Vyleteli Navstrechu Rossiiskim Bombardirovshchikam" [British Fighters Again Flew to Meet Russian Heavy Bombers], AVIA.Ru, July 20, 2007; Rossiiskie Tu-95 Zakonchili Polety v Raione Norvezhskogo Morya" [ Russian Tu-95 Have Completed Flights in the Norwegian Sea Region], AVIA.Ru, July 20, 2007; "V diplomaticheskii Skandal Vmeshalis Bombardirovshchiki" [Bombers Interfere in a Diplomatic Scandal], Gazeta.Ru, July 19, 2007; Vladimir Solovyov, Mikhail Zygar, "Londonskie Gazety Sledyat za Rossiiskimi Bombardirovshchikami" [London Newspapers Follow Russian Bombers], Kommersant-Daily, July 19, 2007; "Strategicheskie Raketonostsy VVS RF Zavershili Uchebnye Polyoty v Raione Norvezhskogo Morya" [Strategic Missile-Carrying Bombers of the Russian Air Force Have Completed Flights toward the Norwegian Sea], RIA-Novosti, July 20, 2007.
[9] Aleksandr Drobyshevski, "Po-Nad Oblakami s Dozapravkoi" [Over the Clouds with Refueling], Krasnaya Zvezda, July 21, 2007.
[10] Aleksandr Sadchikov, "Rossiiski Bombardirovshchik Doletel do Velikobritanii' [A Russian Bomber Reached Great Britain], Izvestiya, August 23, 2007.
[11] "Norvegiya Schitaet Neobychnymi Polety Rossiiskikh Tu-95" [Norway Considers Flights of Russian Tu-95s Unusual], AVIA.Ru, July 20, 2007.
[12] Kristin Roberts, "Russia Said Flying More Missions Near U.S. Territory," Reuters, August 14, 2007.
[13] Vladimir Ivanov, "Predmet Delezha -- Vysokie Shiroty" [The Issue Is High Latitudes], Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, September 7, 2007; "Istrebiteli SShA Byli gotovy Perekhvatit Dva Rossiiskikh Samoleta" [U.S. Fighters Were Prepared to Intercept Two Russian Aircraft], RIA-Novosti, August 10, 2007; "Russian Bombers Force U.S. Jets to Scramble,'"Associated Press, August 9, 2007.
[14] "Rossiya Vozobnovlyaet Vozdushnoe Patrulirovanie Otdalennykh Raionov" [Russia Resumes Air Patrols of Remote Regions], RIA Novosti, September 6, 2007.
[15] "Bombardirovshchiki Tu-160 patruliruyut Granitsy Severnogo Ledovitogo Okeana" [Tu-160 Bombers Patrol the Borders of the Arctic Ocean], RIA-Novosti, September 14, 2007.
[16] Viktor Myasnikov, Viktor Litovkin, Ivan Groshkov, Vladimir Mukhin, "Bombardirovshchiki Zaleteli v Bolshuyu Politiku" [Bombers Flew into High Politics], Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 20, 2007.
[17] See, for example, Nikolai Sokov, "Russia's Nuclear Doctrine," NTI Issue Brief, August 2004, http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/russias-nuclear-doctrine/. [View Article]
[18] "Naftalinovaya Ataka na Zapad" [A Mothball Attack on the West], Gazeta.Ru, August 18, 2007.
[19] "Ivanov: Reshenie o Poletakh Dalney Aviatsii -- Eto ne Kholodnaya Voina" [Ivanov: Decision on Long-Range Aviation Flights is Not a Cold War], RIA-Novosti, August 23, 2007.
[20] Dmitri Litovkin, "Rossiiskie Bombardirovshchiki Letayut Bez Oruzhiya" [Russian Bombers Fly Without Weapons], Izvestiya, August 28, 2007.
[21] Pavel Zolotarev, "Proetsirovanie Sily v Globalnom Masshtabe" [Global Force Projection], Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, August 24, 2007.
[22] "VVS RF Vozobnovyat Postoyannye Polety s Yadernym Oruzhiem" [Russian Air Force Resumes Regular Flights with Nuclear Weapons], RBC.Ru, August 20, 2007.
[23] "Strategicheskaya Aviatsiya VVS Budet Nesti Dezhurstvo na Postoyannoi Osnove so Shtatnym Oruzhiem" [Strategic Aviation of the Air Force Will Fly Permanent Duty with Regular Weapons Complement], Arms-TASS, August 20, 2007.
[24] Myasnikov, Litovkin, Groshkov, Mukhin, "Bombardirovshchiki Zaleteli v Bolshuyu Politiku" [Bombers Flew into High Politics], see source in [16].
[25] Litovkin, "Rossiiskie Bombardirovshchiki Letayut Bez Oruzhiya" [Russian Bombers Fly Without Weapons], see source in [20].
[26] "Rossiiskie Bombardirovshchiki Ne Nesut Yadrnogo Oruzhiya" [Russian Bombers Do Not Carry Nuclear Weapons], ITAR-TASS, August 21. 2007.
[27] "Istrebiteli SShA Byli gotovy Perekhvatit Dva Rossiiskikh Samoleta" [U.S. Fighters Were Prepared to Intercept Two Russian Aircraft], August 10, 2007; "Russian Bombers Force U.S. Jets to Scramble," Associated Press, August 9, 2007.
[28] Arkadi Orlov, "Neobkhodimosti v Perekhvate Rossiiskikh Samoletov Ne Bylo" [There Was No Need to Intercept Russian Aircraft], RIA-Novosti, August 10, 2007; Anne Troianovski and Josh White, "Russia Says U.S. Intercepted Two of Its Bombers Over Pacific," Washington Post, August 10, 2007.
[29] "Rossiiskie Aviaucheniya Proshli pod Plotnoi Opekoi NATO" [Russian Air Maneuvers Conducted Under Close Surveillance by NATO], Strana.Ru, August 18, 2007.
[30] "Velikobritaniya i Norvegiya Nervnichayut iz-za Poletov Rossiiskikh Tu-95" [Great Britain and Norway are Nervous About the Flights of Russian Tu-95s], RIA-Novosti, September 6, 2007; "Britanskie Istrebiteli Byli Podnyaty po Trevoge iz-za Rossiiskikh Tu-95" [Alarm Over Russian Tu-95s Sent British Fighters Into Air], RIA-Novosti, September 6, 2007.
[31] See sources in [8].