East Asia [2002-2004]

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General

Posted: December 15, 2004

Strait Talk: Avoiding a Nuclear War between the United States and China over Taiwan

An e-book by Dr. Monte R. Bullard.

Updated: March 16, 2004

Chen's Gambit: The Legal Basis and Potential Policy Consequences of Taiwan's Referendum

Taiwan's upcoming referendum, to be held concurrently with the 20 March presidential election, has been the subject of increasing international scrutiny and concern.
CNS Feature Story by Matthew Godsey.

August 26, 2003

Seeing North Korea Clearly [PDF format]

An article by Dan A. Pinkston and Phillip C. Saunders for the journal Survival.

July 24, 2003

Hearing on China's Proliferation Policies and Practices

Testimony by Leonard S. Spector
Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

Posted: May 29, 2003

Why China Should Rethink Its Approach to North Korea

An op-ed by Jing-Dong Yuan for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: May 20, 2003

India and China - Moving Closer?

"With international attention focused elsewhere, a visit to China by Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes over the past week received little coverage. Nonetheless, Mr Fernandes' China trip is significant in a number of ways."
An op-ed by Jing-Dong Yuan for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: April 28, 2003

South Korean Electoral Politics and Seoul's Position on the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

If reports from the Beijing talks that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons are accurate, effective U.S. policy will require close coordination with South Korea and other countries.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: April 18, 2003

Factsheet on North Korean Nuclear Reprocessing Statement

The statement was the first official comment by the DPRK about the upcoming trilateral meetings between the United States, North Korea and China that are scheduled to be held in Beijing the week of April 20th.

Posted: April 9, 2003

North Korea's Withdrawal From the NPT: A Reality Check

North Korea's withdrawal could trigger further defections from the treaty and cause other states in the region to pursue nuclear weapons of their own. Of equal concern is the potential for North Korea to sell weapons grade fissile material or nuclear weapons themselves to other states and non-state actors, including terrorist groups.
Feature Story by Jean Du Preez and William Potter.

Posted: March 26, 2003

U.S. Must Rethink North Korea Strategy

"The U.S. must now consider an alternative strategy before time runs out."
An op-ed by Jing-Dong Yuan for The Japan Times.

Posted: March 18, 2003

N. Korea Talks Are Imperative

"The United States must anticipate intensified North Korean nuclear and missile brinkmanship once the fighting begins in Iraq. Starting negotiations now could prevent North Korean nuclear escalation and avoid the risk of fighting wars on two fronts."
An op-ed by William C. Potter and Phillip C. Saunders for the San Jose Mercury News.

Posted: March 12, 2003

Choices Are Narrowing to Meet the DPRK Nuclear Threat

"As North Korea accelerates its efforts to build new nuclear weapons, options for averting a tragic outcome are disappearing one by one."
An op-ed by Leonard S. Spector for the Chosun Ilbo.

Posted: February 25, 2003

Japan's View of the Korea Crisis

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and signing of the Pyongyang Agreement appeared to signal a break from Japan's traditional "opportunistic" posture toward a new, more proactive "engagement diplomacy."

Posted: February 18, 2003

High Risks, Limited Ability and Unpredictable Consequences

"Three key issues would be involved in successful military strikes against North Korean nuclear facilities."
An op-ed by Phillip C. Saunders for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: February 17, 2003

Is This Russia's Chance to Return to Centre Stage?

"Many Russians feel the United States has pushed North Korea into a corner."
An op-ed by Cristina Chuen for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: February 10, 2003

Using Its Influence Behind the Scenes

"China's failure to take a more active, or leading, role in attempting to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis is something of a dilemma."
An op-ed by Jing-dong Yuan for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: Fall/Winter 2002

Second Tier Proliferation: The Case of Pakistan and North Korea [PDF format]

A report for the Nonproliferation Review, CNS, Vol. 9.3.
by Guarav Kampani

Posted: November 20, 2002

A Chinese Reader From The Nonproliferation Review [PDF format]

A Chinese translation of selected Nonproliferation Review articles.

Updated: November 21, 2002

Chinese Export Controls and Jiang Zemin's Visit to the United States

Contains text of export control regulations covering missile and CBW technology, analyses by CNS experts, and Chinese statements on export controls. Includes Chinese translated selections.

Posted: October 29, 2002

Sino-U.S. Relations After Crawford

"As Chinese President Jiang Zemin returns home from his Crawford, Texas summit with U.S. President George W. Bush, their third meeting within a year, he must be quite satisfied with what he has been able to achieve."
An op-ed by Jing-dong Yuan for the Korea Herald, October 28, 2002.

Posted: October 22, 2002

Links Must Be Nurtured to Succeed

As Presidents Jiang Zemin and George W. Bush prepare to meet in Crawford, Texas, later this month, their third meeting in a year, world attention will again turn to one of the most critical bilateral relationships in international relations.
An op-ed by Jing-dong Yuan for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: October 21, 2002

Collapse of the Agreed Framework?

A White House spokesman declared that North Korea is in "material breach" of the Agreed Framework, and the agreement could now be null and void. It is too early to tell whether the Agreed Framework can be resuscitated because the willingness of both parties to negotiate a new deal is uncertain.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: October 4, 2002

Strengthening China's Export Control System [PDF format]

Gaps remain between China's export control system and existing multilateral export control regimes.
A report by Jing-Dong Yuan.

Posted: September 26, 2002

Trying to Make Sense of China's Iraq Policy

An op-ed by Jing-Dong Yuan for the Taipei Times.

Posted: September 26, 2002

Fifth Column: Beijing's Nonproliferation Record

An op-ed by Jing-Dong Yuan for the Far Eastern Economic Review.

Updated: July 26, 2002

Fourth U.S.-China Conference on Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation-- "Building a Global Strategic Framework for the 21st Century"

A conference co-organized by CNS/MIIS and the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) in Washington, D.C., March 2002. Includes a Japanese translation [PDF format] of the Executive Summary.

Posted: July 25, 2002

Bush's Hawks Circle Over Policy

The recently released US Department of Defence report on China's military power has focused attention on the nation's growing military capabilities and its intentions as a rising power.
An op-ed by Jing-dong Yuan for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: May 30, 2002

Japan-U.S. Track II Project

Agendas, papers, and summaries for the First and Second U.S.-Japan Track II Meeting on Arms Control, Disarmament, Non-Proliferation and Verification.

Posted: April 30, 2002

Will China's Next Leaders Be Puppets of the Old Guard?

An op-ed by Phillip C. Saunders and Jing-dong Yuan for the Los Angeles Times.

Posted: January 4, 2002

Assessing Chinese Nonproliferation Policy: Progress, Problems and Issues for the United States

A statement for the U.S.-China Security Review Commission by Jing-dong Yuan.

CBW

Posted: February 26, 2003

Vinalon, the DPRK, and Chemical Weapons Precursors

An integral segment of the DPRK chemical industry is the production of vinalon, or "juche fiber." Of special significance is the fact that a number of North Korean defectors have linked Dr. Lee Sung Ki-the co-inventor of vinalon and father of polymer fiber production in the DPRK-with the DPRK chemical and nuclear weapons programs.
An issue brief by Eric Croddy for the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).

Updated: October 31, 2002

Chinese Export Controls and Jiang Zemin's Visit to the United States

Contains text of export control regulations covering missile and CBW technology, analyses by CNS experts, and Chinese statements on export controls.

Posted: June 10, 2002

1996 Japanese Police Agency White Paper on Organized Crime, Including Aum Shinrikyo Incidents [PDF format]

Missile

Posted: October 6, 2003

China's Manned Space Program: Trajectory and Motivations

The countdown is ticking toward China's first manned space mission, the Shenzhou 5, which is expected to be launched sometime in October 2003. Whether or not the Shenzhou is an indication of Chinese scientific achievement, it is definitely a sign of priorities in the Chinese government.
Feature Story By Stephanie Lieggi and Leigh Aldrich.

Posted: Summer 2003

Domestic Politics and Stakeholders in the North Korean Missile Development Program [PDF format]

An article for the Nonproliferation Review, CNS, Vol. 10.2.
by Dan A. Pinkston.

Posted: May 30, 2003

What's Behind U.S. Nonproliferation Sanctions Against Norinco?

The Bush administration's decision to impose a ban on imports from the China North Industries Group (Norinco) and its subsidiaries for transfers of dual-use equipment to a company involved in Iran's ballistic missile program marks a significant shift in the Bush administration's nonproliferation policy.
Feature Story by Phillip Saunders and Stephanie Lieggi.

Posted: April 8, 2003

North Korean Cruise Missile Tests--and Iraqi Cruise Missile Attacks--Raise Troubling Questions for Missile Defenses

"In the end, hedging against the cruise missile threat depends as much on developing more effective nonproliferation policies as it does on planning for more versatile missile defenses."
Feature Story by Dennis Gormley.

Posted: March 26, 2003

U.S. Must Rethink North Korea Strategy

"The U.S. must now consider an alternative strategy before time runs out."
An op-ed by Jing-Dong Yuan for The Japan Times.

Updated: March 16, 2003

Ballistic Missile Defense in Northeast Asia

This annotated chronology covers key events such as indigenous development, missile testing, and BMD-related transfers to the region, as well as major policy statements made by the governments involved. In addition, the chronology is prefaced by a brief updated summary of key actors' positions and policies on BMD issues in the region. Includes Chinese translation.

Posted: Fall/Winter 2002

Second Tier Proliferation: The Case of Pakistan and North Korea [PDF format]

A report for the Nonproliferation Review, CNS, Vol. 9.3.
by Guarav Kampani

Updated: October 31, 2002

Chinese Export Controls and Jiang Zemin's Visit to the United States

Contains text of export control regulations covering missile and CBW technology, analyses by CNS experts, and Chinese statements on export controls.

Posted: October 28, 2002

When Did WMD Deals Between Pyongyang and Islamabad Begin?

According to press reports, the North Korean-Pakistani trade of missiles for highly enriched uranium (HEU) technology occurred around 1997, which would coincide with Pyongyang's shipment of Nodong missiles to Pakistan.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: October 21, 2002

Collapse of the Agreed Framework?

A White House spokesman declared that North Korea is in "material breach" of the Agreed Framework, and the agreement could now be null and void. It is too early to tell whether the Agreed Framework can be resuscitated because the willingness of both parties to negotiate a new deal is uncertain.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: October 9, 2002

Taiwan's Response to China's Missile Building

This issue brief provides a systematic outline of Taiwans potential military and political responses to a PRC missile attack.
An issue brief by Phillip C. Saunders for the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).

Posted: September 10, 2002

Preliminary Analysis of Chinese Missile Technology Export Control List [PDF format]

This paper identifies differences and omissions between the MTCR Annex and the Chinese Missile and Missile Technology Export Control List and makes a preliminary assessment of their potential significance.
by Phillip C. Saunders

Posted: September 5, 2002

Missile Export Controls Significant Step for Beijing

"China has issued long-awaited regulations on missile technology exports and a control list on specific items - an important step in nonproliferation policy which should be applauded."
An op-ed by Jing-dong Yuan for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: September 3, 2002

Taiwan's Security Umbrella at Risk

"The heightened tensions between Taiwan and mainland China triggered by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's recent call for legislation that would allow a future referendum on the island's independence once again raises the issue of how the United States could defend the island." An op-ed by Leonard S. Spector for The Asian Wall Street Journal.

Posted: July 22, 2002

China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons

In recent years, some U.S. politicians and analysts have claimed that China's reported efforts to develop anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons pose a direct threat to U.S. space assets (and thus U.S. space dominance).
Feature Story by Phillip Saunders, Jing-dong Yuan, Stephanie Lieggi, and Angela Deters.

Posted: April 15, 2002

Space Weapons or Space Arms Control?

Feature Story by James Clay Moltz.

Nuclear

Posted: November 9, 2004

South Korea's Nuclear Experiments

South Korea's experiments do not indicate a present and dedicated effort to develop nuclear weapons, but could have broad implications given South Korea's past nuclear weapons development program and the ongoing efforts to thwart North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
CNS Feature Story by Dan A. Pinkston.

Posted: February 26, 2003

Bargaining Failure and the North Korean Nuclear Program's Impact on International Nonproliferation Regimes [PDF format]

An article by Dan A. Pinkston for the December issue of the KNDU Review.

Posted: December 12, 2003

Controversy in Germany: Siemens Sale of MOX Plant to China

German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder held discussions with Chinese government and business leaders about the proposed sale of a mothballed German mixed oxide (MOX) fuel fabrication plant to a Chinese nuclear company.
Feature Story by Stephanie Lieggi.

Posted: August 26, 2003

Seeing North Korea Clearly [PDF format]

An article by Dan A. Pinkston and Phillip C. Saunders for the journal Survival.

Posted: August 25, 2003

What to Expect from the Six-Party Talks on the Korean Nuclear Crisis

On August 27-29, 2003, diplomats from the U.S., North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and China will meet in Beijing for talks about the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Feature Story by Phillip Saunders.

Posted: July 17, 2003

Radioactive Cesium Seizure in Thailand: Riddled with Uncertainties

An eight-month old U.S.Thailand coordinated endeavor culminated on June 13, 2003 with the arrest of an individual in possession of radioactive cesium-137 a substance that could fuel a radiological dispersal device (RDD) one type of which is more commonly known as a "dirty bomb."
Feature Story by Alessandro Andreoni and Charles D. Ferguson.

Posted: May 5, 2003

Russian Policy on the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Russia is highly concerned about the recent turn of events on the Korean Peninsula and what it perceives as the U.S. escalation of tensions over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
A report by Clay Moltz.

Posted: April 28, 2003

South Korean Electoral Politics and Seoul's Position on the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

If reports from the Beijing talks that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons are accurate, effective U.S. policy will require close coordination with South Korea and other countries.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: April 18, 2003

Factsheet on North Korean Nuclear Reprocessing Statement

The statement was the first official comment by the DPRK about the upcoming trilateral meetings between the United States, North Korea and China that are scheduled to be held in Beijing the week of April 20th.

Posted: April 17, 2003

DPRK Claims to Have Begun Reprocessing

Posted: April 9, 2003

North Korea's Withdrawal From the NPT: A Reality Check

North Korea's withdrawal could trigger further defections from the treaty and cause other states in the region to pursue nuclear weapons of their own. Of equal concern is the potential for North Korea to sell weapons grade fissile material or nuclear weapons themselves to other states and non-state actors, including terrorist groups.
Feature Story by Jean Du Preez and William Potter.

Posted: March 26, 2003

U.S. Must Rethink North Korea Strategy

"The U.S. must now consider an alternative strategy before time runs out."
An op-ed by Jing-Dong Yuan for The Japan Times.

Posted: March 18, 2003

N. Korea Talks Are Imperative

"The United States must anticipate intensified North Korean nuclear and missile brinkmanship once the fighting begins in Iraq. Starting negotiations now could prevent North Korean nuclear escalation and avoid the risk of fighting wars on two fronts."
An op-ed by William C. Potter and Phillip C. Saunders for the San Jose Mercury News.

Posted: March 12, 2003

Choices Are Narrowing to Meet the DPRK Nuclear Threat

"As North Korea accelerates its efforts to build new nuclear weapons, options for averting a tragic outcome are disappearing one by one."
An op-ed by Leonard S. Spector for the Chosun Ilbo.

Posted: March 4, 2003

Confronting Ambiguity: How to Handle North Korea's Nuclear Program

"There are growing divisions over how to deal with North Korea's nuclear weapons program."
An article by Phillip C. Saunders for Arms Control Today.

Posted: January 27, 2003

Military Options for Dealing with North Korea's Nuclear Program

This report explores some of the tactical issues that would be involved in military strikes against North Korean nuclear facilities and explains why an anonymous senior Bush administration official concluded that although the United States has military options, "we don't have good ones."

Posted: January 24, 2003

Russian Responses to the North Korean Crisis

Russian responses to the crisis in North Korea (DPRK) have ranged from strong concern about proliferation of nuclear weapons to sympathy for the North Korean viewpoint.

Posted: January 22, 2003

China and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

China has increasingly become a hub of diplomatic activities as the international community seeks a way to defuse the nuclear crisis. How China views the situation and responds to the crisis not only has an important impact on the resolution of the current nuclear impasse, but also reflects Beijing's fundamental interests in the future evolution of the peninsula's peace and stability.

Updated: February 12, 2003

North Korea's Nuclear Program: Key Concerns

It is clear that the North Korean program has advanced to a stage where the possession of a small nuclear arsenal is within reach.

Posted: January 14, 2003

Assessing North Korea's Nuclear Intentions

North Korean leaders have strong incentives to conceal their true intentions in order to maximize their bargaining power and to minimize international reactions to their nuclear weapons program.

Posted: January 14, 2003

U.S. Fails to Heed N. Korea Advice

"The Bush administration would be wise to consult a prescient 1999 study that critiqued the Clinton administration's approach toward Pyongyang. It's a study Richard Armitage and Paul Wolfowitz seem to have forgotten -- even though they were among its principal authors."
An op-ed by William C. Potter for the San Jose Mercury News.

Posted: January 14, 2003

North Korea Pushed into Nuclear Standoff

"Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme and its development of ballistic missiles have been driven largely by its acute sense of vulnerability in what it perceives to be a deteriorating security environment since the end of the Cold War."
An op-ed by Yuan Jing-Dong for the South China Morning Post.

Posted: January 10, 2003

CNS Experts Respond to the DPRK's Withdrawal from the NPT

On January 10th, the DPRK issued a statement that it would be withdrawing from the NPT.

Posted: January 10, 2003

Text of North Korea's Statement on NPT Withdrawal

On January 10th, the DPRK issued a statement that it would be withdrawing from the NPT.

Posted: January 7, 2003

Korea Crisis Will Test Chinese Diplomacy

"As the United States and North Korea head toward a possible nuclear confrontation, China is positioned to play a critical role in defusing the crisis."
An op-ed by Phillip C. Saunders and Jing-dong Yuan for the Asian Times, January 8, 2002.

Posted: Fall/Winter 2002

Second Tier Proliferation: The Case of Pakistan and North Korea [PDF format]

A report for the Nonproliferation Review, CNS, Vol. 9.3.
by Guarav Kampani

Posted: December 16, 2002

North Korea Lifts the Freeze on Its Nuclear Program

The DPRK announced that it would lift the freeze on its nuclear facilities to generate electricity, raising several questions regarding the current status of its nuclear facilities and the timelines for any diversion of nuclear materials to bomb fabrication.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: October 30, 2002

North Korean Motivations for Developing Nuclear Weapons [PDF format]

"We must analyze the North Koreans' threat perceptions over the past half century to clearly understand their motivations for acquiring the bomb."

Posted: October 30, 2002

Nuclear Inspections and Brinksmanship

"The United States and its allies in East Asia are struggling to develop a strategy to address the growing threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program."
An op-ed by Leonard S. Spector for the Chosun Ilbo, October 30, 2002.

Posted: October 28, 2002

When Did WMD Deals Between Pyongyang and Islamabad Begin?

According to press reports, the North Korean-Pakistani trade of missiles for highly enriched uranium (HEU) technology occurred around 1997, which would coincide with Pyongyang's shipment of Nodong missiles to Pakistan.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: October 21, 2002

Collapse of the Agreed Framework?

A White House spokesman declared that North Korea is in "material breach" of the Agreed Framework, and the agreement could now be null and void. It is too early to tell whether the Agreed Framework can be resuscitated because the willingness of both parties to negotiate a new deal is uncertain.
Feature Story by Daniel A. Pinkston.

Posted: April 1, 2002

The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review and China's Responses

"The Chinese government accused the United States of "nuclear blackmail" and vowed not to bow to foreign nuclear threats."
Feature Story.

Posted: February 26, 2002

The Status of North Korea's Nuclear Inspections

Feature Story.