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Research Story of the WeekThe U.S. Nuclear Posture Review and China's Responses
by Evan S. Medeiros and Jing-dong Yuan Recent U.S. press reports about the contents of the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) have prompted a harsh Chinese reaction. The Chinese government accused the United States of "nuclear blackmail" and vowed not to bow to foreign nuclear threats.[1] The Foreign Ministry demanded that the United States provide an explanation of its targeting policy. The Chinese were reacting particularly to parts of the document that advocated the development of new types of nuclear weapons and of contingency plans for using nuclear weapons against China and six other nations.[2] The document listed a military confrontation over the status of Taiwan as one of the scenarios that could lead Washington to use nuclear weapons against China. While the immediate controversy will eventually dissipate, the ripple effects on Chinese arms control and nuclear modernization policies and on bilateral strategic consultations may reverberate well into the future. Beijing's conclusions about the NPR's contents and the U.S. thinking behind the changes have weakened its already limited interest in arms control and may lead China to reconsider key commitments such as its moratorium on nuclear testing. Chinese Concerns about U.S. Nuclear DoctrineIn recent years Chinese strategists have been intensely focused on the changing nature of U.S. nuclear policy, nuclear force structure, and U.S. views on deterrence.[3] Chinese analysts and officials consistently highlight several worrisome trends such as: new U.S. threat assessments of the international security environment, possible U.S. resumption of testing to develop new nuclear weapons, U.S. support for deployment of missile defenses at the national and theater levels, the shift away from Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) toward deterrence that incorporates strategic defenses, and increasing military support for developing space-based weapons. The leaked sections of the NPR will heighten these concerns in Chinese strategic thinking. Although Beijing has long suspected the United States has nuclear targeting and contingency planning aimed at China, Beijing believes the NPR represents a fundamental change in the principles guiding U.S. use of nuclear weapons. In the past, nuclear weapons were "weapons of last resort" and principally meant to deter other nuclear threats. Many Chinese believe the NPR advocates a totally different rationale that lowers the threshold for nuclear weapons use.[4] This reinforces Chinese concerns about the high likelihood of U.S. military intervention in the event that the mainland uses force to resolve the Taiwan issue. The NPR and Chinese Nuclear TestingChina's acute concern about the shifts in U.S. nuclear thinking could precipitate shifts in Chinese policies on nuclear testing and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). China signed the CTBT in 1996 but has not yet ratified it, largely due to the Senate's rejection of the treaty in 1999. Since then, a fierce internal debate about CTBT ratification has been raging in China. Some support ratification because China has already stopped testing and could claim the moral high ground on this global arms control issue. Others argue ratification would prevent China from resuming testing in response to a new round of U.S. nuclear tests. Some Chinese analysts believe China was duped into signing the treaty before the United States initiated its missile defense programs. A growing number of Chinese analysts believe the United States will probably start nuclear testing again to develop a new generation of small nuclear weapons.[5] The recent leaks about the Nuclear Posture Review will strengthen the latter school of thought. Many in China view the NPR's conclusions as a signal of the growing importance of nuclear weapons and new modes of nuclear warfare to U.S. leaders. At a minimum, these concerns will prevent China from ratifying the CTBT in the near future. But the recent press leaks about the NPR may also trigger a basic reconsideration of Beijing's commitment to the CTBT. If the United States resumes testing, China will almost certainly follow suit. China's concerns about the NPR may also complicate the recently initiated U.S.-China strategic consultation on missile defense issues. The conclusions Chinese analysts and leaders draw about U.S. intentions from the leaked sections of the NPR will further deepen China's mistrust of the United States and make it harder to manage the numerous sensitive differences on missile defense issues. U.S.-China interactions on arms control and issues of strategic stability will only grow more complicated in the future.
Sources:
For comments on the Nuclear Posture Review and China, contact:
East Asia Nonproliferation Program Telephone: (831) 647-4621 Email: jing-dong.yuan@miis.edu
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