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Research Story of the Week

Will Kirkuk's Oil Fields Burn?

US Marines walk past burning oil well during Operation Desert Storm. [Source: Associated Press]

By Ibrahim Al-Marashi

While the oil fields in the south of Iraq have been set ablaze, the fate of the oil fields in the north of Iraq remains in question. If US or UK forces were deployed through the north of Iraq, they too will most certainly be destroyed. Documents left in Kuwait from the 1991 Gulf War show Saddam's motivation for the destruction of oil fields when attacked by external forces.

The Americans have stressed that they would secure the Mosul and Kirkuk oil fields. All past power-sharing agreement between the Kurds and the central authority in Baghdad failed due to the issue of reallocation of the Kirkuk oil revenues to the north of Iraq. Based on this past precedent, it seems likely that any agreement between the Kurds and a post-Saddam government will hinge on the issue of Kirkuk. The question remains, "what will be left of the Kirkuk oil fields after the war?"

A review of Iraqi intelligence documents at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies that were captured after the 1991 Gulf War provide a better understanding of what Saddam will do to the fields, based on his past pattern of destroying the Kuwaiti oil fields. These documents are stored on the Iraq Research and Documentation Website and the Iraq Foundation in Washington, DC and can be accessed at (www.fas.harvard.edu/~irdp).

Many analysts of the Gulf War assert that Saddam destroyed the Kuwaiti oil fields in the last days of February 1991, to thwart US abilities to conduct air raids, as a result of the ensuing smoke clouds. However, one document demonstrates that Saddam had ordered the oil wells to be prepared for destruction as early as August 1990, well before the Gulf War had started. For example, a document known as a "signed release for the detonation of the oil wells," states, "I guarantee that all 16 wells in the group location 21 are ready to be destroyed." The document was signed by an Iraqi officer on August 26, 1990. Based on this pattern, Saddam may have already rigged the oil wells in Kirkuk with explosives.

As noted, analysts of the Gulf War suggest that Saddam destroyed the oil wells to create smoke cover to impede allied air attacks. However, one document suggests that the Iraqis ordered the destruction of the Kuwaiti oil wells simply so the Americans would not gain access to them. One captured document reads, "Because the oil fields are important to the enemy (i.e., Americans) we need to protect the explosives that are positioned at the oil fields. Below are instructions that will secure the mission." This document implies that because the United States coveted the Kuwaiti oil, the Iraqis had to make sure they were destroyed, an almost vengeful act of spite. Given that the United States has made it clear that it intends to secure Kirkuk's oil, it seems that Saddam will try to frustrate American designs by destroying its wells.

Another document suggests that destroying the oil fields could have a psychological effect on the Iraqi forces. The document reads, "The importance of the execution of the destruction of the oil wells plays a significant role in lifting the morale. Destruction will be implemented at the last moment in front of the enemy."

Given Iraq's past motives for destroying Kuwait's oil fields, it seems likely that Saddam will give the order to destroy the oil fields around Kirkuk and Mosul in the event of a US attack.

CNS Experts on Iraq:

• Timothy McCarthy | Bio
  Director of the Proliferation Research and Assessment Program (PRAP)
  tmccarthy@miis.edu

• Leonard Spector | Bio
  Deputy Director of the CNS, Washington, D.C. Office
  leonard.spector@miis.edu

• Ibrahim Marashi | Bio
  Research Associate, PRAP
  ibrahim.al-marashi@miis.edu

• Dr. Victor Mizin | Bio
  Diplomat-in-Residence
  victor.mizin@miis.edu