Monitoring Implementation of the 2010 NPT Action Plan: Disarmament

Introduction

The 2010 Review Conference (RevCon) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) adopted by consensus Conclusions and Recommendations for Follow-on Actions, which contain 64 action items across the three pillars of the NPT: nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. An additional set of recommendations pertains to the implementation of the 1995 Resolution on the establishment of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the Middle East. On April 30—May 11, 2012, NPT states parties will gather in Vienna for the first meeting of the Preparatory Committee of the new review cycle. States will discuss the progress in implementing the 2010 Action Plan.

Tracking and assessing progress, however, is not an entirely straightforward task, considering the number of action items, the range of activities they cover, challenges associated with obtaining reliable information, and the near-absence of specific targets and deadlines in the Action Plan. It is not clear yet how the states themselves are going to address these issues, but the discussion is likely to be influenced by varying interests and perspectives. Civil society organizations have begun their own monitoring projects in an effort to offer more neutral analysis.

First 22 Actions on Nuclear Disarmament

CNS has prepared a report reviewing the implementation of the first 22 actions — on nuclear disarmament. Most of the action items in the disarmament section pertain to activities of the nuclear-weapon states (NWS), but some — such as on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs) and disarmament education — are to be implemented by non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) as well. To monitor implementation, CNS developed specific indicators of progress for almost each action item, and the report provides country-by-country and action-by-action assessments.

This initial study indicates that the overall progress since 2010 has been limited and implementation uneven across different states and action items. Most of the measures implemented during the reporting period were initiated or planned before the adoption of the Action Plan, whereas actions that require a significant change in behavior or revision of policies for the most part saw little progress. A particular shortcoming is the failure of most NWS to reduce, since 2010, the role of nuclear weapons in military and security doctrines, which should provide the overall context for the implementation of other concrete steps.

Progress

The greatest progress was observed on Action 4 on New START: Russia and the United States have ratified the treaty and successfully began its implementation. There were positive developments on Action 9 relating to NWFZs, with Russia ratifying the protocols to the Treaties of Rarotonga (South Pacific) and Pelindaba (Africa). The five NWS also settled their long-standing disagreement with members of the Southeast Asian NWFZ treaty, opening the door for the signature of the protocols to the treaty by the NWS.

Concerns

The report flags as problematic the ongoing modernization of arsenals in the NWS, which signal continued, long-term reliance on nuclear weapons. Planned or ongoing nuclear cooperation with NPT outlier India is also noted in the context of implementing NWFZ treaties that prohibit the supply of nuclear material and technologies to states without IAEA comprehensive nuclear safeguards. Finally, the lack of state reporting on the implementation of disarmament and nonproliferation education recommendations is also a concern, as promotion of such education has long-term implications for further disarmament and nonproliferation efforts.